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[Preprint]. 2021 Dec 7:2021.12.07.21267410.
doi: 10.1101/2021.12.07.21267410.

International risk of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant importations originating in South Africa

Yuan Bai  1   2 , Zhanwei Du  1   2 , Mingda Xu  1 , Lin Wang  3 , Peng Wu  1   2 , Eric H Y Lau  1   2 , Benjamin J Cowling  1   2 , Lauren Ancel Meyers  4   5
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International risk of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant importations originating in South Africa

Yuan Bai et al. medRxiv. .

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Abstract

Omicron, a fast-spreading SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern reported to the World Health Organization on November 24, 2021, has raised international alarm. We estimated there is at least 50% chance that Omicron had been introduced by travelers from South Africa into all of the 30 countries studied by November 27, 2021.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.. Estimated risks of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant introductions from South Africa to 30 non-African regions on or before November 28, 2021.
(A) The probability that at least one person infected with the Omicron variant arrived in a given country from South Africa by the date indicated on the x-axis, based on Facebook mobility and OpenSky data. The black dashed vertical line indicates November 26, 2021, when the WHO classified Omicron as a VOC (1); the red dashed horizontal line indicates an importation probability of 50%; line colors correspond to the relative risk of importations as of November 26. Regions that confirmed Omicron cases by December 3, 2021 are listed in black (2). (B) Probability of at least one Omicron variant importation from SA by November 28, 2021. Regions in grey were not analyzed because mobility data were not available.
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References

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