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. 2022 Mar:67:50-60.
doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2021.11.009. Epub 2021 Dec 16.

Prevalence of current and past COVID-19 in Ohio adults

Abigail Norris Turner  1 , David Kline  2 , Alison Norris  3 , W Gene Phillips  4 , Elisabeth Root  5 , Jonathan Wakefield  6 , Zehang Li (Richard)  7 , Stanley Lemeshow  8 , Morgan Spahnie  9 , Amanda Luff  9 , Yue Chu  10 , Mary Kate Francis  4 , Maria Gallo  9 , Payal Chakraborty  9 , Megan Lindstrom  11 , Gerard Lozanski  12 , William Miller  9 , Samuel Clark  13
Affiliations

Prevalence of current and past COVID-19 in Ohio adults

Abigail Norris Turner et al. Ann Epidemiol. 2022 Mar.

Abstract

Purpose To estimate the prevalence of current and past COVID-19 in Ohio adults. Methods We used stratified, probability-proportionate-to-size cluster sampling. During July 2020, we enrolled 727 randomly-sampled adult English- and Spanish-speaking participants through a household survey. Participants provided nasopharyngeal swabs and blood samples to detect current and past COVID-19. We used Bayesian latent class models with multilevel regression and poststratification to calculate the adjusted prevalence of current and past COVID-19. We accounted for the potential effects of non-ignorable non-response bias. Results The estimated statewide prevalence of current COVID-19 was 0.9% (95% credible interval: 0.1%-2.0%), corresponding to ∼85,000 prevalent infections (95% credible interval: 6,300-177,000) in Ohio adults during the study period. The estimated statewide prevalence of past COVID-19 was 1.3% (95% credible interval: 0.2%-2.7%), corresponding to ∼118,000 Ohio adults (95% credible interval: 22,000-240,000). Estimates did not change meaningfully due to non-response bias. Conclusions Total COVID-19 cases in Ohio in July 2020 were approximately 3.5 times as high as diagnosed cases. The lack of broad COVID-19 screening in the United States early in the pandemic resulted in a paucity of population-representative prevalence data, limiting the ability to measure the effects of statewide control efforts.

Keywords: Bayesian; Covid-19; Ohio; Population-representative; Sars-cov-2; probability-proportional-to-size cluster sampling.

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Figures

Fig 1
Figure 1
Sampled census tracts and dates of data collection across Ohio's eight administrative regions.
Fig 2
Figure 2
Study flow.
Fig 3
Figure 3
COVID-19 associated symptoms experienced since March 1, 2020, Ohio (n = 727). Notes. Fever measured as yes and/or no instead of mild versus moderate and/or severe. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
Fig 4
Figure 4
COVID-19 prevention strategies practiced “all or most of the time” during the stay-at-home period and in the last 30 days, Ohio, July 2020 (n = 727). *Asked only of individuals working outside their homes.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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