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. 2021 Dec 18;21(1):1260.
doi: 10.1186/s12879-021-06978-9.

Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by sex and age in a high endemic city in northeastern Brazil: where were we before the Covid-19 pandemic?

Hamilton Leandro Pinto de Andrade  1 , Dulce Gomes  2 , Antônio Carlos Vieira Ramos  3 , Luiz Henrique Arroyo  3 , Marcelino Santos-Neto  1 , Pedro Fredemir Palha  3 , Regina Célia Fiorati  4 , Inês Fronteira  5 , Aline Aparecida Monroe  3 , Márcio Souza Dos Santos  3 , Miguel Fuentealba-Torres  6 , Mellina Yamamura  7 , Juliane de Almeida Crispim  3 , Ricardo Alexandre Arcêncio  8
Affiliations

Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by sex and age in a high endemic city in northeastern Brazil: where were we before the Covid-19 pandemic?

Hamilton Leandro Pinto de Andrade et al. BMC Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Background: The aim of this study was to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to sex and age group and evidence the level of disease before the Covid-19 pandemic in a TB high endemic city.

Methods: This was a time series study carried out in a city in northeast Brazil. The population was composed of cases of tuberculosis, excluding those with HIV-positive status, reported between the years 2002 and 2018. An exploratory analysis of the monthly rates of tuberculosis detection, smoothed according to sex and age group, was performed. Subsequently, the progression of the trend and prediction of the disease were also characterized according to these aspects. For the trends forecast, the seasonal autoregressive linear integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the usual Box-Jenkins method were used to choose the most appropriate models.

Results: A total of 1620 cases of tuberculosis were reported, with an incidence of 49.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in men and 34.0 per 100,000 in women. Regarding the incidence for both sexes, there was a decreasing trend, which was similar for age. Evidence resulting from the application of the time series shows a decreasing trend in the years 2002-2018, with a trend of stability.

Conclusions: The study evidenced a decreasing trend in tuberculosis, even before the Covid-19 pandemic, for both sex and age; however, in a step really slow from that recommended by the World Health Organization. According to the results, the disease would have achieved a level of stability in the city next years, however it might have been aggravated by the pandemic. These findings are relevant to evidence the serious behavior and trends of TB in a high endemic scenario considering a context prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Keywords: Covid-19; Ecological studies; Epidemiology; Nursing; Time series studies; Tuberculosis.

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Conflict of interest statement

The author(s) declare(s) that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Trend in tuberculosis according to total cases (A); males in the 15–59 years age group (B); males in the > 59 years age group (C); females in the 15–59 years age group (D); and females in the > 59 years age group (E), Imperatriz, MA, Brazil (2002–2018)
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
ARIMA models (3,1,3) (2,0,1) [12], adjusted for the detection rates of tuberculosis cases in men (2002–2018) and forecast of case detection rates for men (2019–2022), Imperatriz, MA, Brazil (2002–2018). Black line: observed data; green line: adjusted data; blue line: data forecasts; and gray line: 95% confidence intervals
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
ARIMA models (5,1,4) (0,0,2) [12], adjusted for the detection rates of tuberculosis cases in women (2002–2018) and forecast of case detection rates for women (2019–2022), Imperatriz, MA, Brazil (2002–2018). Blackline: observed data; green line: adjusted data; blue line: data forecasts; and gray line: 95% confidence intervals
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