Seasonal variation in attacks of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders and multiple sclerosis: Evaluation of 794 attacks from a nationwide registry in Argentina

Abstract

Background: Identification of triggers that potentially instigate attacks in neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSD) and multiple sclerosis (MS) has remained challenging. We aimed to analyze the seasonality of NMOSD and MS attacks in an Argentinean cohort seeking differences between the two disorders.

Methods: A retrospective study was conducted in a cohort of NMOSD and MS patients followed in specialized centers from Argentina and enrolled in RelevarEM, a nationwide, longitudinal, observational, non-mandatory registry of MS/NMOSD patients. Patients with complete relapse data (date, month and year) at onset and during follow-up were included. Attack counts were analyzed by month using a Poisson regression model with the median monthly attack count used as reference.

Results: A total of 551 patients (431 MS and 120 NMOSD), experiencing 236 NMOSD-related attacks and 558 MS-related attacks were enrolled. The mean age at disease onset in NMOSD was 39.5 ± 5.8 vs. 31.2 ± 9.6 years in MS (p < 0.01). Mean follow-up time was 6.1 ± 3.0 vs. 7.4 ± 2.4 years (p < 0.01), respectively. Most of the included patients were female in both groups (79% vs. 60%, p < 0.01). We found a peak of number of attacks in June (NMOSD: 28 attacks (11.8%) vs MS: 33 attacks (5.9%), incidence rate ratio 1.82, 95%CI 1.15-2.12, p = 0.03), but no differences were found across the months in both disorders when evaluated separately. Strikingly, we observed a significant difference in the incidence rate ratio of attacks during the winter season when comparing NMOSD vs. MS (NMOSD: 75 attacks (31.7%) vs MS: 96 attacks (17.2%), incidence rate ratio 1.82, 95%CI 1.21-2.01, p = 0.02) after applying Poisson regression model. Similar results were observed when comparing the seropositive NMOSD (n = 75) subgroup vs. MS.

Conclusions: Lack of seasonal variation in MS and NMOSD attacks was observed when evaluated separately. Future epidemiological studies about the effect of different environmental factors on MS and NMOSD attacks should be evaluated prospectively in Latin America population.

Keywords: Multiple sclerosis; Neuromielitis optica spectrum disorders; Relapses; Seasonal variation.