Are We Approaching Peak Meat Consumption? Analysis of Meat Consumption from 2000 to 2019 in 35 Countries and Its Relationship to Gross Domestic Product

Abstract

Growing prosperity, but also disease outbreaks, natural disasters, and consumer preferences are changing global meat consumption. We investigated the 2000-2019 trends in 35 countries monitored by the Food and Agriculture Organization and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. We also tested relationships with Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Several countries appeared to be reaching peak consumption of some meats, and three (New Zealand, Canada, and Switzerland) have reached this. Poultry consumption increased over time in most countries, and beef and mutton/lamb consumption decreased in many. Using cluster analysis, we divided countries into two clusters: one in which increases in GDP per capita matched increases in meat consumption; and a second one of nine countries, for which there was no association between per capita change in GDP and meat consumption. There was evidence of a tipping point around USD 40,000 of GDP per capita, after which increases in economic well-being do not lead to increased meat consumption.

Keywords: COVID-19; GDP; beef; lamb; meat consumption; pork; poultry; sustainability.

Figure 1

Total meat consumption over time (years) in countries with increasing consumption, for countries with statistics documented by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development–Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (OECD–FAO) database [16].

Figure 2

Total meat consumption over time (years) in countries with decreasing consumption, from statistics documented by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)–Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (OECD–FAO) database [16].

Figure 3

Scatterplot of change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (USD 1000/capita) per year by change in total meat consumption (kg/capita) per year. Circles indicate country clusters.