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. 2022 Jan-Feb:45:102243.
doi: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2021.102243. Epub 2021 Dec 22.

The transmission dynamics of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus

Jia Rui  1 , Qiupeng Wang  2 , Jinlong Lv  3 , Bin Zhao  4 , Qingqing Hu  5 , Heng Du  6 , Wenfeng Gong  7 , Zeyu Zhao  1 , Jingwen Xu  1 , Yuanzhao Zhu  1 , Xingchun Liu  1 , Yao Wang  1 , Meng Yang  1 , Li Luo  1 , Qiuping Chen  8 , Benhua Zhao  1 , Yanhua Su  9 , Jing-An Cui  10 , Tianmu Chen  11
Affiliations

The transmission dynamics of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus

Jia Rui et al. Travel Med Infect Dis. 2022 Jan-Feb.

Abstract

Background: In this study, we aimed to quantify the contribution of different transmission routes of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and determine its transmissibility.

Methods: Based on the natural history and transmission features of MERS in different countries, a susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/death (SEIARD) model and a multi-route dynamic model (MMDM). The SEIARD model and MMDM were adopted to simulate MERS in South Korea and Saudi Arabia, respectively. Data on reported MERS cases in the two countries were obtained from the World Health Organization. Thereafter, the next generation matrix method was employed to derive the equation for the basic reproduction number (R0), and the model fitting procedure was adopted to calculate the R0 values corresponding to these different countries.

Results: In South Korea, 'Person-to-Person' transmission was identified as the main mode of MERS transmission in healthcare settings, while in Saudi Arabia, in addition to 'Person-to-Person' transmission, 'Host-to-Host' and 'Host-to-Person' transmission also occurred under certain scenarios, with camels being the main host. Further, the fitting results showed that the SEIARD model and MMDM fitted the data well. The mean R0 value was 8.59 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0-28.02) for MERS in South Korea, and for MERS in Saudi Arabia, it was 1.15 and 1.02 (95% CI: 0.86-1.44) for the 'Person-to-Person' and 'Camel-to-Camel' transmission routes, respectively.

Conclusions: The SEIARD and MMDM model can be used to simulate the transmission of MERS in different countries. Additionally, in Saudi Arabia, the transmissibility of MERS was almost the same among hosts (camels) and humans.

Keywords: Basic reproduction number; Coronavirus; Mathematical model; Middle East respiratory syndrome.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Schematic diagram of the MERS-CoV transmission route (A, South Korea; B, Saudi Arabia).
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
SEAIDR model based on the 2015 MERS epidemic in South Korea.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
MMDM model based on the MERS epidemic in Saudi Arabia (since 2013).
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
(a) Epidemic curve of newly increased confirmed case of MERS in South Korea. (b) Sex and age distribution of MERS cases in South Korea.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
(a) Epidemic curve corresponding to newly increased confirmed MERS cases in Saudi Arabia. (b) Sex and age distribution of MERS cases in Saudi Arabia. (c) Sex and age distribution of health care workers (HCWs) MERS cases in Saudi Arabia.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Comparison of simulated and actual MERS outbreak in the SEIADR model for the epidemic in South Korea.
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Comparison of simulated and actual MERS outbreak in the MMDM for the epidemic in Saudi Arabia.
Fig. 8
Fig. 8
Forest plot of R0 of MERS (A, Republic of South Korea; B, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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