Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2022 Mar;50(3):258-261.
doi: 10.1016/j.ajic.2021.12.019. Epub 2021 Dec 29.

How many lives do COVID vaccines save? Evidence from Israel

Ronen Arbel  1 , Candace Makeda Moore  2 , Ruslan Sergienko  3 , Joseph Pliskin  4
Affiliations

How many lives do COVID vaccines save? Evidence from Israel

Ronen Arbel et al. Am J Infect Control. 2022 Mar.

Abstract

Background: Israel began a mass vaccination program with the rapid rollout of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 BNT162b2 vaccine for adults. At the same time, government stringency measures in terms of closing public life were decreased. Our objective was to estimate the total number of Covid-19 deaths avoided due to the massive vaccination campaign in the elderly Israeli population.

Methods: We examined the effect of vaccination on mortality when at least 90% of the population over age 70 were vaccinated for less than seven months. Projected deaths as expected from vaccine efficacy and actual mortality data were compared for the study population to account for potential confounding effects of government stringency. The average Oxford Stringency Index was calculated in the study period and the preceding period of the pandemic. Potential confounding effects of an age shift in the distribution of deaths were examined by analyzing the distributions before and after the study period.

Results: Confirmed deaths from COVID-19 in the population over 70 after mass vaccination were recorded as 370, versus 5,120 estimated without vaccinations.

Conclusions: Vaccines against COVID-19 saved more lives than expected by simply applying individual vaccine efficacy to the vaccinated population in Israel, despite a loosening of government stringency. Our findings support the worldwide efforts of governments to improve vaccination rates, especially in the elderly population.

Keywords: Covid 19; Mortality; Vaccination.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1
Cases and deaths, before and during the study period.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Rosen B, Waitzberg R, Israeli A. Israel’s rapid rollout of vaccinations for COVID-19. Isr J Health Policy Res. 2021;10:6. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Smith PG. Concepts of herd protection and immunity. Procedia in Vaccinology. 2010;2:34–39.
    1. Haas JE, Angulo FJ, McLaughlin JM, et al. Impact and effectiveness of mRNA BNT162b2 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, and deaths following a nationwide vaccination campaign in Israel: an observational study using national surveillance data. The Lancet. 2021;397:1819–1829. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Abecassis A. Five priorities for universal COVID-19 vaccination. Lancet. 2021;398:P285–P286. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Giubilini A, Savulescu JD, Wilkinson D. COVID-19 vaccine: vaccinate the young to protect the old? J Law Biosci. 2020;7:lsaa050. - PMC - PubMed