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Editorial
. 2022 Feb;41(1):101017.
doi: 10.1016/j.accpm.2021.101017. Epub 2021 Dec 28.

Principles of mathematical epidemiology and compartmental modelling application to COVID-19

Bastien Reyné  1 , Nicolas Saby  2 , Mircea T Sofonea  3
Affiliations
Editorial

Principles of mathematical epidemiology and compartmental modelling application to COVID-19

Bastien Reyné et al. Anaesth Crit Care Pain Med. 2022 Feb.
No abstract available

Keywords: Basic reproduction number; Epidemiology; Hospital dynamics; Infectious diseases modelling; Ordinary differential equations.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Illustrative compartmental model to estimate hospital occupancy. Susceptible individuals (Scompartment) become infected after being in contact with infected individuals. They can develop an asymptomatic or mild version of the disease (I) before recovering (R), or they can become severely infected (Is). In the latter, they will transmit the disease as the other infected individuals then end up in the hospital (H) before recovery or death (D).
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
The probability for a given individual of remaining in a specific compartment in a classical and simple SIR model, like the infected compartment (I) in Model 1 follows an exponential distribution which is memoryless – meaning the time spent in the compartment does not depend on the time already spent in the compartment, which is unrealistic. A workaround consists of chaining compartments as I1 and I2 in Model 2, thus creating some heterogeneity and adding memory. For instance, to specify that an individual who just entered a compartment has a very low probability to clear the disease instantly, and on the contrary if she/he spent already some significant time infected, she/he has a higher probability to clear the disease.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
The model used by Ref. to estimate the hospital conventional beds occupancy and ICU beds occupancy. In this model, individuals can be either susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected but not hospitalised (I), hospitalised in conventional beds (H), hospitalised in ICU (ICU) or removed (R/D).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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