Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2022 Feb;4(1):6-10.
doi: 10.1016/j.bsheal.2021.12.003. Epub 2021 Dec 25.

Forecasting COVID-19 situation in Bangladesh

Mossamet Kamrun Nesa  1 , Md Rashed Babu  1 , Mohammad Tareq Mamun Khan  2
Affiliations

Forecasting COVID-19 situation in Bangladesh

Mossamet Kamrun Nesa et al. Biosaf Health. 2022 Feb.

Abstract

Forecasting the COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries demands time to know the severity of the novel coronavirus. This research aims to predict all types of COVID-19 cases (verified people, deaths, and recoveries) from the deadliest 3rd wave data of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh. We used the official website of the Directorate General of Health Services as our data source. To identify and predict the upcoming trends of the COVID-19 situation of Bangladesh, we fit the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model on the data from Mar. 01, 2021 to Jul. 31, 2021. The finding of the ARIMA model (forecast model) reveals that infected, deaths, and recoveries number will have experienced exponential growth in Bangladesh to October 2021. Our model reports that confirmed cases and deaths will escalate by four times, and the recoveries will improve by five times at a later point in October 2021 if the trend of the three scenarios of COVID-19 from March to July lasts. The prediction of the COVID-19 scenario for the next three months is very frightening in Bangladesh, so the strategic planner and field-level personnel need to search for suitable policies and strategies and adopt these for controlling the mass transmission of the virus.

Keywords: ARIMA model; COVID-19; Confirmed cases; Deaths; Forecast; Recoveries.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Daily and cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Bangladesh from March to July 2021.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Daily and cumulative deaths of COVID-19 in Bangladesh from March to July 2021.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Daily and cumulative recoveries of COVID-19 in Bangladesh from March to July 2021.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Forecasting results of confirmed cases up to Oct. 31, 2021 (Black line: actual data; Blue line: three months forecast; Dark Gray zone: 80% CI; Light Gray zone: 95% CI; CI: confidence interval).
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Forecasting results of deaths up to Oct. 31, 2021 (Black line: actual data; Blue line: three months forecast; Dark Gray zone: 80% CI; Light Gray zone: 95% CI).
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Forecasting results of recoveries up to Oct. 31, 2021 (Black line: actual data; Blue line: three months forecast; Dark Gray zone: 80% CI; Light Gray zone: 95% CI).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019?gclid=Cj..., 2021 (accessed 13 November 2021).
    1. Davies N.G., Abbott S., Barnard R.C., et al. Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B. 1.1. 7 in England. Science. 2021;372 doi: 10.1126/science.abg3055. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. World Health Organization, Naming the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the virus that causes it. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technica..., 2021 (accessed 13 November 2021).
    1. Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research, Covid-19 Update Flash | IEDCR. https://iedcr.gov.bd/covid-19/covid-19-update-flash, 2021 (accessed 25 October 2021).
    1. World Health Organization, WHO coronavirus (COVID-19) dashboard with vaccination data. https://covid19.who.int/, 2021 (accessed 13 November 2021).

LinkOut - more resources