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. 2022 Jan;27(1):2101038.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.1.2101038.

Unexposed populations and potential COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths in European countries as per data up to 21 November 2021

Lloyd A C Chapman  1   2 , Rosanna C Barnard  1   2 , Timothy W Russell  1   2 , Sam Abbott  1   2 , Kevin van Zandvoort  1   2 , Nicholas G Davies  1   2 , Adam J Kucharski  1   2
Affiliations

Unexposed populations and potential COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths in European countries as per data up to 21 November 2021

Lloyd A C Chapman et al. Euro Surveill. 2022 Jan.

Abstract

We estimate the potential remaining COVID-19 hospitalisation and death burdens in 19 European countries by estimating the proportion of each country's population that has acquired immunity to severe disease through infection or vaccination. Our results suggest many European countries could still face high burdens of hospitalisations and deaths, particularly those with lower vaccination coverage, less historical transmission and/or older populations. Continued non-pharmaceutical interventions and efforts to achieve high vaccination coverage are required in these countries to limit severe COVID-19 outcomes.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; deconvolution; hospitalisations and deaths; immunity; infection fatality risk; remaining burden; unexposed population; vaccination.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Overall first-dose vaccination coverage (A) and corresponding population-weighted average infection fatality risk (B) over time, 19 European countries, 1 December 2020–21 November 2021
Figure 2
Figure 2
Estimated SARS-CoV-2 infections (A–B) and proportion infected or vaccinated (C) by age over time, 19 European countries, 3 January 2020–21 November 2021
Figure 3
Figure 3
SARS-CoV-2 immune status of the population, 19 European countries, November 2021
Figure 4
Figure 4
Estimated maximum remaining COVID-19 hospitalisations per 100,000 population by age and immune status (A) and against vaccination coverage (B), 19 European countries, November 2021
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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