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. 2021 Dec 14:9:689575.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.689575. eCollection 2021.

Epidemiological Characteristics and Transmissibility of Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Nanning City, China, 2001-2020

Qian Lin  1 , Bin Deng  2 , Jia Rui  2 , Song-Bai Guo  3 , Qingqing Hu  4 , Qiuping Chen  5   6 , Chi Tang  7 , Lina Zhou  8 , Zeyu Zhao  1   5 , Shengnan Lin  2 , Yuanzhao Zhu  2 , Meng Yang  2 , Yao Wang  2 , Jingwen Xu  2 , Xingchun Liu  2 , Tianlong Yang  2 , Peihua Li  2 , Zhuoyang Li  2 , Li Luo  2 , Weikang Liu  2 , Chan Liu  2 , Jiefeng Huang  2 , Min Yao  9 , Mengni Nong  9 , Liping Nong  9 , Jinglan Wu  9 , Na Luo  9 , Shihai Chen  7 , Roger Frutos  6 , Shixiong Yang  9 , Qun Li  10 , Jing-An Cui  3 , Tianmu Chen  2
Affiliations

Epidemiological Characteristics and Transmissibility of Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Nanning City, China, 2001-2020

Qian Lin et al. Front Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a single-stranded RNA virus that can weaken the body's cellular and humoral immunity and is a serious disease without specific drug management and vaccine. This study aimed to evaluate the epidemiologic characteristics and transmissibility of HIV. Methods: Data on HIV follow-up were collected in Nanning City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous, China. An HIV transmission dynamics model was built to simulate the transmission of HIV and estimate its transmissibility by comparing the effective reproduction number (Reff ) at different stages: the rapid growth period from January 2001 to March 2005, slow growth period from April 2005 to April 2011, and the plateau from May 2011 to December 2019 of HIV in Nanning City. Results: High-risk areas of HIV prevalence in Nanning City were mainly concentrated in suburbs. Furthermore, high-risk groups were those of older age, with lower income, and lower education levels. The Reff in each stage (rapid growth, slow growth, and plateau) were 2.74, 1.62, and 1.15, respectively, which suggests the transmissibility of HIV in Nanning City has declined and prevention and control measures have achieved significant results. Conclusion: Over the past 20 years, the HIV incidence in Nanning has remained at a relatively high level, but its development trend has been curbed. Transmissibility was reduced from 2.74 to 1.15. Therefore, the prevention and treatment measures in Nanning City have achieved significant improvement.

Keywords: acquired immune deficiency syndrome; dynamics; human immunodeficiency virus; transmissibility; transmission model.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The structure of HIV transmission dynamics model.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The number of cases and incidence rate of HIV in Nanning from 2001 to 2020.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The number of deaths and fatality rate of HIV in Nanning for twenty years.
Figure 4
Figure 4
The distribution by place of HIV in Nanning for 20 years (The signal of the red point represents the site of Nanning city in China).
Figure 5
Figure 5
The distribution by sex of HIV in Nanning from 2001 to 2019.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Time of diagnosis in different years and stages. (A) The diagnosis time changes from 2001 to 2020; (B) the diagnosis time changes in different stages.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Parameter of f1, f2, and p in three stages. (A) The fatality rate of HIV-infected (f1) in different stages; (B) the fatality rate of AIDS patient (f2) in different stages; (C) the proportion of HIV-infected (p) in different stages.
Figure 8
Figure 8
The Susceptible-Exposed-Untested HIV infection-Tested HIV infection-Dead (SEITD) model fitting result of HIV reported data of 2001–2019 in Nanning City.
Figure 9
Figure 9
The result of simulation prevention and control effect of HIV in Nanning during the twenty years. (A) The result of the model fitted and different stage in the development of HIV, Rapid growth period: from January 2001 to March 2005; Slow growth period; from April 2005 to April 2011; Plateau: from May 2011 to December 2019; (B) the result of the simulated trend by using the transmissibility of rapid growth period without interventions; (C) the result of the simulated trend by using the transmissibility of slow growth period in the condition of without interventions in the second stage but taking interventions in the rapid growth period.
Figure 10
Figure 10
The sensitivity analysis of κ1 (*κ1: transmissibility coefficient of the HIV-infected, κ1 + κ2 = 1).
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