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. 2021 Dec 24;19(1):165.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph19010165.

Extreme Precipitation Events and Infectious Disease Risk: A Scoping Review and Framework for Infectious Respiratory Viruses

Kyle T Aune  1 , Meghan F Davis  2   3 , Genee S Smith  1
Affiliations

Extreme Precipitation Events and Infectious Disease Risk: A Scoping Review and Framework for Infectious Respiratory Viruses

Kyle T Aune et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events (EPE) change the natural and built environments and alter human behavior in ways that facilitate infectious disease transmission. EPEs are expected with high confidence to increase in frequency and are thus of great public health importance. This scoping review seeks to summarize the mechanisms and severity of impacts of EPEs on infectious diseases, to provide a conceptual framework for the influence of EPEs on infectious respiratory diseases, and to define areas of future study currently lacking in this field. The effects of EPEs are well-studied with respect to enteric, vector-borne, and allergic illness where they are shown to moderately increase risk of illness, but not well-understood in relation to infectious respiratory illness. We propose a framework for a similar influence of EPEs on infectious respiratory viruses through several plausible pathways: decreased UV radiation, increased ambient relative humidity, and changes to human behavior (increased time indoors and use of heating and cooling systems). However, limited work has evaluated meteorologic risk factors for infectious respiratory diseases. Future research is needed to evaluate the effects of EPEs on infectious respiratory diseases using individual-level case surveillance, fine spatial scales, and lag periods suited to the incubation periods of the disease under study, as well as a full characterization of susceptible, vulnerable, and sensitive population characteristics.

Keywords: RSV; SARS-CoV-2; climate change; covid; extreme weather; influenza; rain.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to publish the results.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Conceptual framework of the impact of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) on infectious respiratory viruses. EPEs alter (1) the natural environment by increasing humidity and decreasing UV radiation, (2) indoor environments by increasing heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system use which in turn lowers humidity and increases recirculation of virus-laden droplets and aerosols, and (3) human host behavior by prompting increased indoor-seeking behavior and household crowding. Changes to the outdoor and indoor environments increase pathogen stability and persistence in outdoor and indoor environments and changes in host behavior increase person-to-person contact frequency, two important factors in favoring increased transmission dynamics.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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