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Case Reports
. 2021 Dec 31;19(1):415.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph19010415.

Application of the ARIMA Model to Predict Under-Reporting of New Cases of Hansen's Disease during the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Municipality of the Amazon Region

Valéria Perim da Cunha  1 , Glenda Michele Botelho  1 , Ary Henrique Morais de Oliveira  1 , Lorena Dias Monteiro  2 , David Gabriel de Barros Franco  3 , Rafael da Costa Silva  4
Affiliations
Case Reports

Application of the ARIMA Model to Predict Under-Reporting of New Cases of Hansen's Disease during the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Municipality of the Amazon Region

Valéria Perim da Cunha et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

This work aimed to apply the ARIMA model to predict the under-reporting of new Hansen's disease cases during the COVID-19 pandemic in Palmas, Tocantins, Brazil. This is an ecological time series study of Hansen's disease indicators in the city of Palmas between 2001 and 2020 using the autoregressive integrated moving averages method. Data from the Notifiable Injuries Information System and population estimates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics were collected. A total of 7035 new reported cases of Hansen's disease were analyzed. The ARIMA model (4,0,3) presented the lowest values for the two tested information criteria and was the one that best fit the data, as AIC = 431.30 and BIC = 462.28, using a statistical significance level of 0.05 and showing the differences between the predicted values and those recorded in the notifications, indicating a large number of under-reporting of Hansen's disease new cases during the period from April to December 2020. The ARIMA model reported that 177% of new cases of Hansen's disease were not reported in Palmas during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This study shows the need for the municipal control program to undertake immediate actions in terms of actively searching for cases and reducing their hidden prevalence.

Keywords: COVID-19; epidemiology; leprosy; neglected disease; time series analysis.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Incidence of COVID-19 in Palmas during the year 2020.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Hansen’s disease indicators (per 100,000 inhabitants) in Palmas, Tocantins, Brazil, during the period 2001–2020: (A) general detection; and (B) detection in children under 15 years old.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Hansen’s disease indicators (per 100,000 inhabitants) in Palmas, Tocantins, Brazil, during the period 2001–2020: (A) proportion of cure; and (B) proportion of reported cases with grade II.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Proportion of new Hansen’s disease cases detected by operational classification and sex in Palmas, Tocantins, Brazil, during the period 2001–2020: (A) proportion of cases diagnosed in the multibacillary (MB) and paucibacillary (PB) operational classification; and (B) proportion of cases diagnosed in women and men.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Spots of change in the averages of the series of notifications of new Hansen’s disease cases during the period 2001–2020 in Palmas, Tocantins.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Notifications grouped by month/year: observed notifications and forecast with the ARIMA model (4,0,3).
Figure 7
Figure 7
Residual analysis of the ARIMA model (4,0,3) applied to notifications of new cases of Hansen’s disease in the city of Palmas, Tocantins, from 2001 to 2020.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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    1. World Health Organization Leprosy (Hansen’s Disease) 2021. [(accessed on 15 September 2021)]. Available online: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/leprosy.
    1. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention—CDC Hansen’s Disease (Leprosy) [(accessed on 15 September 2021)];2017 Available online: https://www.cdc.gov/leprosy/index.html.
    1. Ministry of Health (Brazil) Epidemiological Bulletin—Hansen’s Disease 2021. Ministry of Health; Brasília, Brazil: 2021. [(accessed on 14 March 2021)]. Available online: https://www.gov.br/saude/pt-br/media/pdf/2021/fevereiro/12/boletim-hanse....
    1. Ministry of Health (Brazil) Epidemiological Situation and Hansen’s Disease. Anexo 3-Anexo 3—Epidemiological And Operational Indicators Of Hansen’s Disease, By States and Regions, Brazil, 2020. Ministry of Health; Brasília, Brazil: 2021. [(accessed on 15 July 2021)]. Available online: http://www.aids.gov.br/pt-br/hanseniase/situacao-epidemiologica.

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