Long-term exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 incidence: a prospective study of residents in the city of Varese, Northern Italy

Abstract

Objectives: To investigate the association between long-term exposure to airborne pollutants and the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 up to March 2021 in a prospective study of residents in Varese city.

Methods: Citizens of Varese aged ≥18 years as of 31 December 2019 were linked by residential address to 2018 average annual exposure to outdoor concentrations of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, NO and ozone modelled using the Flexible Air quality Regional Model (FARM) chemical transport model. Citizens were further linked to regional datasets for COVID-19 case ascertainment (positive nasopharyngeal swab specimens) and to define age, sex, living in a residential care home, population density and comorbidities. We estimated rate ratios and additional numbers of cases per 1 µg/m³ increase in air pollutants from single- and bi-pollutant Poisson regression models.

Results: The 62 848 residents generated 4408 cases. Yearly average PM_2.5 exposure was 12.5 µg/m³. Age, living in a residential care home, history of stroke and medications for diabetes, hypertension and obstructive airway diseases were independently associated with COVID-19. In single-pollutant multivariate models, PM_2.5 was associated with a 5.1% increase in the rate of COVID-19 (95% CI 2.7% to 7.5%), corresponding to 294 additional cases per 100 000 person-years. The association was confirmed in bi-pollutant models; excluding subjects in residential care homes; and further adjusting for area-based indicators of socioeconomic level and use of public transportation. Similar findings were observed for PM₁₀, NO₂ and NO. Ozone was associated with a 2% decrease in disease rate, the association being reversed in bi-pollutant models.

Conclusions: Long-term exposure to low levels of air pollutants, especially PM_2.5, increased the incidence of COVID-19. The causality warrants confirmation in future studies; meanwhile, government efforts to further reduce air pollution should continue.

Keywords: COVID-19; air pollution; epidemiology.