Lethality among individuals infected with visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil: a retrospective study (2007-2018)

Abstract

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a public health problem with a high prevalence and lethality in Brazil. This study aims to estimate the lethality and associated factors in individuals with VL and assess survival time, emphasizing VL/HIV coinfection. This retrospective study has 37,583 individuals notified and confirmed with VL in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) between 2007 and 2018 (Brazil). Lethality was evaluated considering VL deaths, deaths from other causes (OC), and non-deaths. We performed a multinomial logistic regression, with non-death as the benchmark category. We conducted a survival analysis (Kaplan-Meier method), emphasizing VL/HIV coinfection. Most individuals were young, male, mixed race, low schooling level, and urban dwellers. The lethality rate was 10.2% (VL and OC deaths) and 7.8% (VL deaths). The prevalence of HIV infection was 8.81%. A higher likelihood of VL and OC deaths was observed in older age groups, females, and with a higher number of symptoms. A higher likelihood of OC deaths was identified in individuals with HIV. A lower likelihood of VL and OC deaths was observed for individuals on VL therapy. The mean survival time was longer for VL/HIV individuals, who had a lower survival rate than those with VL. The data point to the need for attention to the timely diagnosis of VL and HIV and adequate pharmacological treatment in this population.

Keywords: HIV; Lethality; Prevalence; Survival; Visceral leishmaniasis.