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. 2022 Jan 11;17(1):e0262348.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0262348. eCollection 2022.

Prediction of mortality in hospitalized Egyptian patients with Coronavirus disease-2019: A multicenter retrospective study

Muhammad M AbdelGhaffar  1   2 , Dalia Omran  2   3 , Ahmed Elgebaly  4 , Eshak I Bahbah  4 , Shimaa Afify  5 , Mohamed AlSoda  2 , Mohamed El-Shiekh  6 , Enass S ElSayed  7 , Soha S Shaaban  8 , Samah AbdelHafez  1 , Khaled Elkelany  9 , Ayman A Eltayar  10 , Omnia S Ali  11 , Lamiaa Kamal  12 , Ahmed M Heiba  1   13 , Ahmad El Askary  14 , Hend Ibrahim Shousha  3
Affiliations

Prediction of mortality in hospitalized Egyptian patients with Coronavirus disease-2019: A multicenter retrospective study

Muhammad M AbdelGhaffar et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

We aimed to assess the epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory characteristics associated with mortality among hospitalized Egyptian patients with COVID-19. A multicenter, retrospective study was conducted on all polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed COVID-19 cases admitted through the period from April to July 2020. A generalized linear model was reconstructed with covariates based on predictor's statistical significance and clinically relevance. The odds ratio (OR) was calculated by using stepwise logistic regression modeling. A total of 3712 hospitalized patients were included; of them, 900 deaths were recorded (24.2%). Compared to survived patients, non-survived patients were more likely to be older than 60 years (65.7%), males (53.6%) diabetic (37.6%), hypertensive (37.2%), and had chronic renal insufficiency (9%). Non-survived patients were less likely to receive azithromycin (p <0.001), anticoagulants (p <0.001), and steroids (p <0.001). We found that age ≥ 60 years old (OR = 2.82, 95% CI 2.05-3.86; p <0.0001), diabetes mellitus (OR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.14-2.19; p = 0.006), hypertension (OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.22-2.36; p = 0.002), chronic renal insufficiency (OR = 3.15, 95% CI 1.84-5.38; p <0.0001), tachycardia (OR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.22-2.23; p <0.001), hypoxemia (OR = 5.69, 95% CI 4.05-7.98; p <0.0001), GCS <13 (OR 515.2, 95% CI 148.5-1786.9; p <0.0001), the use of therapeutic dose of anticoagulation (OR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.22-0.74, p = 0.003) and azithromycin (OR = 0.16, 95% CI 0.09-0.26; p <0.0001) were independent negative predictors of mortality. In conclusion, age >60 years, comorbidities, tachycardia, hypoxemia, and altered consciousness level are independent predictors of mortality among Egyptian hospitalized patients with COVID-19. On the other hand, the use of anticoagulants and azithromycin is associated with reduced mortality.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Flow chart of Egyptian COVID-19 patients included in the study.
Fig 2
Fig 2. Baseline distribution of age groups.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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