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. 2022 Apr;27(4):665-675.
doi: 10.1007/s10147-021-02108-2. Epub 2022 Jan 12.

Mapping of global, regional and national incidence, mortality and mortality-to-incidence ratio of lung cancer in 2020 and 2050

Rajesh Sharma  1
Affiliations

Mapping of global, regional and national incidence, mortality and mortality-to-incidence ratio of lung cancer in 2020 and 2050

Rajesh Sharma. Int J Clin Oncol. 2022 Apr.

Abstract

Aim: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. This study examines the current and future burden of lung cancer at global, regional, and national levels.

Methods: The estimates of lung cancer incident cases, deaths, and their age-standardized rates are drawn from GLOBOCAN 2020 for 21 regions and 185 countries. Mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) is considered as a proxy indicator of 5-year survival rates. Lung cancer burden in 2050 is projected using age-specific incidence and death rates in 2020.

Results: In 2020, there were 2.21 million new cases and 1.8 million deaths due to lung cancer worldwide with age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 22.4/100,000 (male: 31.5; female: 14.6) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) of 18.0/100,000, (male: 25.9; female: 11.2/100,000). Global MIR of lung cancer was 0.82 (males 0.83; females: 0.79), varying from 0.59 (Japan) to 1.0 (Belize). Hungary had the highest age-standardized rates (ASIR: 50.1/100,000; ASMR: 42.4/100,000) and Nigeria (ASIR: 0.88; ASMR: 0.86) had the lowest age-standardized rates in 2020. Both ASIR and ASMR were positively correlated with country-level tobacco smoking prevalence and human development index (HDI), whereas MIR exhibited a negative correlation with HDI. As per our projections, there will be 3.8 million incident cases and 3.2 million deaths globally due to lung cancer in 2050.

Conclusion: With close to 2 million cases and deaths already in 2020, lung cancer has already become a global public health threat. Even with current risk levels and age-specific rates, lung cancer annual cases are expected to reach 3.8 million in 2050. Until smoking prevalence is reduced and ambient air pollution levels are checked, particularly in low/medium HDI countries, the lung cancer epidemic will continue unfolding.

Keywords: Epidemiology; GLOBOCAN; Incidence; Lung cancer; Mortality.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Geographical pattern of age-standardized rates of lung cancer in 2020. The mortality-to-incidence ratio is calculated as the ratio between all-age death counts and all-age cases. The age-standardized rates are expressed in terms of counts per 100,000 population. Data source: GLOBOCAN 2020 (International Agency for Research on Cancer)
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Age-specific burden of lung cancer in 2020. Deaths: age-specific death count; incidence: age-specific incident cases. Data source: GLOBOCAN 2020 (International Agency for Research on Cancer)
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Bivariate relationship between age-standardized rates, MIR of lung cancer and HDI. ASIR age-standardized incidence rate; ASMR age-standardized mortality rate; MIR mortality-to-incidence ratio; HDI human development index. MIR was calculated as the ratio between all-age death counts and all-age incident cases. Data source of cancer estimates: GLOBOCAN 2020 (International Agency for Research on Cancer). The data pertaining to HDI are procured from United Nations Development Program
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Geographical pattern of tobacco smoking prevalence. Tobacco smoking prevalence (%) pertains to the year 2016. Data source: World Health Organization (WHO)
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Region wise projected incidence and deaths of lung cancer in 2050. Incidence: all-age incident cases; deaths: all-age deaths. Data source: authors’ calculation based on age-specific rates of lung cancer as per GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates
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