Neural prediction errors depend on how an expectation was formed

Abstract

When a visual event is unexpected, because it violates a train of repeated events, it excites a greater positive electrical potential at sensors positioned above occipital-parietal human brain regions (the P300). Such events can also seem to have an increased duration relative to repeated (implicitly expected) events. However, recent behavioural evidence suggests that when events are unexpected because they violate a declared prediction-a guess-there is an opposite impact on duration perception. The neural consequences of incorrect declared predictions have not been examined. We replicated the finding whereby repetition violating events elicit a larger P300 response. However, we found that events that violated a declared prediction entrained an opposite pattern of response-a smaller P300. These data suggest that the neural consequences of a violated prediction are not uniform but depend on how the prediction was formed.

Keywords: Confirmation bias; Declared predictions; Expectation; Oddball effect; Prediction; Prediction error.