Quantifying the Relationship between Antibiotic Use in Food-Producing Animals and Antibiotic Resistance in Humans

Abstract

It is commonly asserted that agricultural production systems must use fewer antibiotics in food-producing animals in order to mitigate the global spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). In order to assess the cost-effectiveness of such interventions, especially given the potential trade-off with rural livelihoods, we must quantify more precisely the relationship between food-producing animal antimicrobial use and AMR in humans. Here, we outline and compare methods that can be used to estimate this relationship, calling on key literature in this area. Mechanistic mathematical models have the advantage of being rooted in epidemiological theory, but may struggle to capture relevant non-epidemiological covariates which have an uncertain relationship with human AMR. We advocate greater use of panel regression models which can incorporate these factors in a flexible way, capturing both shape and scale variation. We provide recommendations for future panel regression studies to follow in order to inform cost-effectiveness analyses of AMR containment interventions across the One Health spectrum, which will be key in the age of increasing AMR.

Keywords: One Health; agriculture; antimicrobial resistance.

Figure 1

Simplified System Reflecting the Maintenance of Resistance Reservoirs in the Absence of Food-Producing Animal Antimicrobial Use. (Rectangles represent reservoirs of resistance, ovals represent introduction of antimicrobials into the system, and crosses represent the interruption of transmission or selection mechanisms.)