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. 2021 Dec 21;12(1):2.
doi: 10.3390/jpm12010002.

Personalized 5-Year Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Model in Korea Based on Nationwide Representative Data

Yohwan Yeo  1   2 , Dong Wook Shin  1   3   4 , Jungkwon Lee  1   5 , Kyungdo Han  6 , Sang Hyun Park  7 , Keun Hye Jeon  8 , Jungeun Shin  1   9 , Aesun Shin  2 , Jinsung Park  10
Affiliations

Personalized 5-Year Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Model in Korea Based on Nationwide Representative Data

Yohwan Yeo et al. J Pers Med. .

Abstract

Prostate cancer is the fourth most common cause of cancer in men in Korea, and there has been a rapid increase in cases. In the present study, we constructed a risk prediction model for prostate cancer using representative data from Korea. Participants who completed health examinations in 2009, based on the Korean National Health Insurance database, were eligible for the present study. The crude and adjusted risks were explored with backward selection using the Cox proportional hazards model to identify possible risk variables. Risk scores were assigned based on the adjusted hazard ratios, and the standardized points for each risk factor were proportional to the β-coefficient. Model discrimination was assessed using the concordance statistic (c-statistic), and calibration ability was assessed by plotting the mean predicted probability against the mean observed probability of prostate cancer. Among the candidate predictors, age, smoking intensity, body mass index, regular exercise, presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, and hypertension were included. Our risk prediction model showed good discrimination (c-statistic: 0.826, 95% confidence interval: 0.821-0.832). The relationship between model predictions and actual prostate cancer development showed good correlation in the calibration plot. Our prediction model for individualized prostate cancer risk in Korean men showed good performance. Using easily accessible and modifiable risk factors, this model can help individuals make decisions regarding prostate cancer screening.

Keywords: decision aids; personalized risk; prediction; prostate cancer.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Study design summary.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Nomogram for the six-variable prediction model of prostate cancer probability. BMI, body mass index; DM, diabetes mellitus.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Five-year incidence probability of prostate cancer according to the total score.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Predicted 5-year prostate cancer incidence rate (per 1000 person-years) by decile score based on the development and validation cohorts.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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