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. 2022 Jan 6;14(1):101.
doi: 10.3390/v14010101.

Dating the Origin and Estimating the Transmission Rates of the Major HIV-1 Clusters in Greece: Evidence about the Earliest Subtype A1 Epidemic in Europe

Stefanos Limnaios  1 , Evangelia Georgia Kostaki  1 , Georgios Adamis  2 , Myrto Astriti  2 , Maria Chini  3 , Nikos Mangafas  3 , Marios Lazanas  3 , Stavros Patrinos  4 , Simeon Metallidis  5 , Olga Tsachouridou  5 , Vasileios Papastamopoulos  6 , Eleni Kakalou  6 , Dimitrios Chatzidimitriou  7 , Anastasia Antoniadou  8 , Antonios Papadopoulos  8 , Mina Psichogiou  9 , Dimitrios Basoulis  9 , Maria Gova  1 , Dimitrios Pilalas  10 , Dimitra Paraskeva  11 , Georgios Chrysos  11 , Vasileios Paparizos  12 , Sofia Kourkounti  12 , Helen Sambatakou  13 , Vasileios Bolanos  13 , Nikolaos V Sipsas  14 , Malvina Lada  15 , Emmanouil Barbounakis  16 , Evrikleia Kantzilaki  16 , Periklis Panagopoulos  17 , Efstratios Maltezos  17 , Stelios Drimis  11 , Vana Sypsa  1 , Pagona Lagiou  1 , Gkikas Magiorkinis  1 , Angelos Hatzakis  1 , Lemonia Skoura  7 , Dimitrios Paraskevis  1
Affiliations

Dating the Origin and Estimating the Transmission Rates of the Major HIV-1 Clusters in Greece: Evidence about the Earliest Subtype A1 Epidemic in Europe

Stefanos Limnaios et al. Viruses. .

Abstract

Our aim was to estimate the date of the origin and the transmission rates of the major local clusters of subtypes A1 and B in Greece. Phylodynamic analyses were conducted in 14 subtype A1 and 31 subtype B clusters. The earliest dates of origin for subtypes A1 and B were in 1982.6 and in 1985.5, respectively. The transmission rate for the subtype A1 clusters ranged between 7.54 and 39.61 infections/100 person years (IQR: 9.39, 15.88), and for subtype B clusters between 4.42 and 36.44 infections/100 person years (IQR: 7.38, 15.04). Statistical analysis revealed that the average difference in the transmission rate between the PWID and the MSM clusters was 6.73 (95% CI: 0.86 to 12.60; p = 0.026). Our study provides evidence that the date of introduction of subtype A1 in Greece was the earliest in Europe. Transmission rates were significantly higher for PWID than MSM clusters due to the conditions that gave rise to an extensive PWID HIV-1 outbreak ten years ago in Athens, Greece. Transmission rate can be considered as a valuable measure for public health since it provides a proxy of the rate of epidemic growth within a cluster and, therefore, it can be useful for targeted HIV prevention programs.

Keywords: Greece; date of origin; human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); molecular epidemiology; phylodynamic analysis; transmission clusters; transmission rate.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Molecular clock calculations of the time of the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) for the 14 HIV-1 subtype A1 molecular transmission clusters (median, 95% HPD interval) where no cut-off was implemented for the proportion of the ARV-treated PLHIV within a cluster. Dots indicate the median estimations and horizontal lines the 95% HPD intervals.
Figure 2
Figure 2
(a) Molecular clock calculations of the time of the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) for the 14 HIV-1 subtype A1 molecular transmission clusters (median, 95% HPD interval). (b) Molecular clock calculations of the tMRCA for the 31 HIV-1 subtype B molecular transmission clusters (median, 95% HPD interval). Dots indicate the median estimations and horizontal lines the 95% HPD intervals.
Figure 3
Figure 3
(a) Dated tree of the more recent molecular transmission cluster of subtype A1 (cluster 1), estimated by molecular clock analysis; (b) Distribution of transmission rates for the subtype A1 and B molecular transmission clusters; (c) Boxplots of transmission rates for subtype A1 and B molecular transmission clusters.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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