Minimum and optimal numbers of psychiatric beds: expert consensus using a Delphi process

Abstract

The required minimum number of psychiatric inpatient beds is highly debated and has substantial resource implications. The present study used the Delphi method to try to reach a global consensus on the minimum and optimal psychiatric bed numbers. An international board of scientific advisors nominated the Delphi panel members. In the first round, the expert panel provided responses exploring estimate ranges for a minimum to optimal numbers of psychiatric beds and three levels of shortage. In a second round, the panel reconsidered their responses using the input from the total group to achieve consensus. The Delphi panel comprised 65 experts (42% women, 54% based in low- and middle-income countries) from 40 countries in the six regions of the World Health Organization. Sixty psychiatric beds per 100 000 population were considered optimal and 30 the minimum, whilst 25-30 was regarded as mild, 15-25 as moderate, and less than 15 as severe shortage. This is the first expert consensus on minimum and optimal bed numbers involving experts from HICs and LMICs. Many high-income countries have psychiatric bed numbers that fall within the recommended range. In contrast, the number of beds in many LMIC is below the minimum recommended rate.

Fig. 1. Distribution of estimates for optimal, minimum, and shortage levels of psychiatric beds in the first and second round of a Delphi process.

*Four extreme outliers were removed in the first round.