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. 2022 May;94(5):2181-2187.
doi: 10.1002/jmv.27609. Epub 2022 Feb 4.

Correlation between vaccine coverage and the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the world: Based on real-world data

Chao Huang  1 , Lijun Yang  2 , Jia Pan  3 , Xiaomei Xu  4 , Rong Peng  5
Affiliations

Correlation between vaccine coverage and the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the world: Based on real-world data

Chao Huang et al. J Med Virol. 2022 May.

Abstract

The aim of the study was to examine the correlation between COVID-19 vaccine coverage rates and outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in the case of COVID-19 variants based on real-world data. The data came from Our World in Data, which is building the international COVID-19 vaccination data set and is an open-source data set for everyone to use. The vaccination data set uses the most recent official numbers from governments and health ministries worldwide. We assessed the correlation between COVID-19 vaccine coverage rates and outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic with existing variants by performing temporal analysis and spatial analysis. Overall, new cases per million population, the reproduction rate of COVID-19, new deaths from all causes per million population, excess mortality attributed to COVID-19 pandemic, and hospital patients or intensive care unit (ICU) patients per million population were not decreased with the time course. However, at the same time point, new cases per million population, the reproduction rate of COVID-19, new deaths per million population, and hospital patients or ICU patients per million population gradually decreased as the rate of vaccination coverage increased. High coverage percentages of COVID-19 vaccination were negatively correlated with the reproduction rate of COVID-19 (correlation coefficient -0.116) and ICU patients per million of the local population (correlation coefficient -0.055). Currently, there is no effective treatment for the COVID-19 pandemic, and prevention of the COVID-19 pandemic mainly depends on vaccines, especially when the rate of COVID-19 vaccine coverage is over 60%. The benefits of preventing severe disease and preventing transmission of infection are likely to be obvious.

Keywords: COVID-19; effectiveness; global health; vaccination.

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Conflict of interest statement

The author declares that there are no conflict of interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Correlation between COVID‐19 vaccine coverage rates and mortality on a global scale. (A) New deaths per million represent new deaths from all causes; (B) Excess mortality is measured as the percentage difference between the reported number of weekly or monthly deaths in 2020–2021 and the projected number of deaths for the same period based on historical deaths data from 2015 to 2019. The chart here shows excess mortality during the pandemic for all ages using the P‐score. P‐score = (Reported Deaths ˗ Projected Deaths)/Projected Deaths × 100. The reported number of deaths might not count all deaths that occurred due to incomplete coverage and delays in death reporting; (C) The number of new deaths per million changes along with the rate of COVID‐19 vaccine coverage
Figure 2
Figure 2
Correlation between COVID‐19 vaccine coverage rates and hospitalization on a global scale. (A) Hospital patients per million population represent all hospitalized patients per million population; (B) Intensive care unit (ICU) patients per million population represent all ICU patients per million population; (C) The number of hospital patients per million population changes along with the rate of COVID‐19 vaccine coverage; (D) The number of ICU patients per million changes along with the rate of COVID‐19 vaccine coverage
Figure 3
Figure 3
The correlation between potential factors and outcome of COVID‐19 epidemic on a global scale
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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