A Counter-Terrorism Medicine Analysis of Drone Attacks

Abstract

Background: The rapid popularization of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs; also referred to as drones), in both the recreational and industrial sectors, has paved the way for rapid developments in drone capabilities. Although the threat of UAVs used by terrorists has been recognized by specialists in both Counter-Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism Medicine (CTM), there are limited data on the extent and characteristics of drone use by terrorist organizations.

Methods: Data collection was performed using a retrospective database search through the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). The GTD was searched using the internal database search functions for all terrorist attacks using UAVs from January 1, 1970 - December 31, 2019. Years 2020 and 2021 were not yet available at the time of the study. Primary weapon type, number and type of UAVs used, related attacks, location (country, world region), and number of deaths and injuries were collated. Results were exported into an Excel spreadsheet (Microsoft Corp.; Redmond, Washington USA) for analysis.

Results: There were 76 terrorist attacks using UAVs. The first attack occurred in 2016, and the number of attacks per year varied considerably (range: 4-36). Forty-seven of the 76 attacks (70%) were successful. Twenty-seven individually listed events (36%) were related and part of nine coordinated, multi-part incidents. A total of 50 deaths and 132 injuries were recorded, which equated to 1.09 deaths (range: 0-6) and 2.89 injuries (range: 0-20) per successful attack. The mean number of UAVs used in an attack was 1.28 (range: 1-5) and multiple UAVs were used in 22% of attacks.

Conclusion: The use of UAVs to carry out terrorist attacks is on the rise. Seventy-six terrorist attacks using this novel method were recorded since 2016, killing 50 and injuring 132 people. While the use of UAV-related explosives appears less lethal than traditional explosive attacks, advancing technologies and swarming capabilities, increasing ability to carry larger payloads, and the possibility of UAVs to disperse chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons will likely increase UAV lethality in the future, requiring CTM specialists be more proactive.

Keywords: CBRN; counter-terrorism medicine; drone; terrorism; unmanned aerial vehicles.