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. 2022 Jan 13:12:830119.
doi: 10.3389/fpls.2021.830119. eCollection 2021.

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Ning Shi  1   2 , Niyati Naudiyal  1 , Jinniu Wang  1   3 , Narayan Prasad Gaire  4   5 , Yan Wu  1 , Yanqiang Wei  6 , Jiali He  1 , Chunya Wang  1
Affiliations

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Ning Shi et al. Front Plant Sci. .

Abstract

Meconopsis punicea is an iconic ornamental and medicinal plant whose natural habitat has degraded under global climate change, posing a serious threat to the future survival of the species. Therefore, it is critical to analyze the influence of climate change on possible distribution of M. punicea for conservation and sustainable utilization of this species. In this study, we used MaxEnt ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climate scenarios in the southeastern margin region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Model projections under current climate show that 16.8% of the study area is suitable habitat for Meconopsis. However, future projections indicate a sharp decline in potential habitat for 2050 and 2070 climate change scenarios. Soil type was the most important environmental variable in determining the habitat suitability of M. punicea, with 27.75% contribution to model output. Temperature seasonality (16.41%), precipitation of warmest quarter (14.01%), and precipitation of wettest month (13.02%), precipitation seasonality (9.41%) and annual temperature range (9.24%) also made significant contributions to model output. The mean elevation of suitable habitat for distribution of M. punicea is also likely to shift upward in most future climate change scenarios. This study provides vital information for the protection and sustainable use of medicinal species like M. punicea in the context of global environmental change. Our findings can aid in developing rational, broad-scale adaptation strategies for conservation and management for ecosystem services, in light of future climate changes.

Keywords: MaxEnt modeling; Meconopsis punicea; Qinghai-Tibet Plateau; climate change; ecosystem service; habitat suitability.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Distribution map of herbarium sampling and map of the study region.
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Response curves for dominant environmental predictors in the species distribution model for Meconopsis punicea.
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3
Distribution of varying habitat suitability for M. punicea under different climate change scenarios.
FIGURE 4
FIGURE 4
Changes of distribution areas for M. punicea under different climate change scenarios.
FIGURE 5
FIGURE 5
Synthetical assessing ecosystem services of M. punicea under frameworks of international importance.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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