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. 2022 Jan 31;19(1):32.
doi: 10.1186/s12978-022-01339-4.

Modeling the determinant of time to age at first marriage among women in Ethiopia using Cox models with mixed effects

Molalign Gualu Gobena  1 , Yebelay Berelie  2
Affiliations

Modeling the determinant of time to age at first marriage among women in Ethiopia using Cox models with mixed effects

Molalign Gualu Gobena et al. Reprod Health. .

Abstract

Background: Time to age at first marriage of women is the duration of time until the age at which they started living with their first partner. Time to age at first marriage is widely considered a proxy indicator for the age at which women begin to be exposed to the risks inherent in sexual activity. The purpose is to model the determinant of time to age at first marriage among women in Ethiopia using Cox models with mixed effects.

Methods: The 2016 Ethiopian Demography and Health survey sample was selected using a two-stage cluster design. The data set in this study were obtained from the Demography and Health survey conducted in Ethiopia in 2016. In this study, we used Cox models with mixed effects.

Results: Of all 15,683 women aged 15-49 years, 11,405 (72.72%) were married with the median and mean age at first marriage 17 years and 18 years, respectively. Cox frailty survival model showed that residence, educational level, occupation, work status of women& head education level of households were the most significant factors whereas religion, access to media and wealth index of a household of women were not significant factors at 5% level of significance. The significant clustering effect showed that heterogeneity among the regions on age at first marriage was present.

Conclusions: The present study determined the duration of time until the age at first marriage and indicated relevant solutions for marriage-related problems of women aged 15-49 years in Ethiopia. Women residing in rural area of Ethiopia and had lower education level were married earlier. Therefore, programs to reduce the high rate of early marriage in Ethiopia should give attention to women education and women residing in rural area.

Keywords: Grouped data; Heterogeneity; Random effect; Shared frailty; Survival.

Plain language summary

Time to age at first marriage of women is the duration of time until the age at which they started living with their first partner. African women are more likely to marry earlier than other continent women, which causes high fertility due to their long period of exposure to the risk of pregnancy. Even though Sub-Sahara Africa accounts for the highest rate of age at first marriage among countries in the Africa continent, comparably the case is very worse in Ethiopia. Furthermore, there is no study about the determinant of time to age at first marriage in Ethiopia using advanced models like Cox Model with Mixed effects. This model allows for the analysis of data with complex patterns of variability, with a focus on nested sources of variability. Very often it makes sense to use such a model to represent the variability within and between groups. For instance, in this study, our interest is not only knowing the significant effect of determinant factors on time to age at first marriage among women in Ethiopia but also the variability of time to age at first marriage within the region of Ethiopia and between regions of Ethiopia. We have used a dataset for this study from Ethiopia Demography and Health Survey which was conducted in 2016. The study helps to indicate relevant solutions for women's marriage-related problems (predominantly, women's reproductive health problems) in Ethiopia and it provides input for further studies in Ethiopia.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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