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. 2022 Jul:210:112818.
doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.112818. Epub 2022 Jan 29.

Examining the status of forest fire emission in 2020 and its connection to COVID-19 incidents in West Coast regions of the United States

Srikanta Sannigrahi  1 , Francesco Pilla  2 , Arabinda Maiti  3 , Somnath Bar  4 , Sandeep Bhatt  5 , Ankit Kaparwan  6 , Qi Zhang  7 , Saskia Keesstra  8 , Artemi Cerda  9
Affiliations

Examining the status of forest fire emission in 2020 and its connection to COVID-19 incidents in West Coast regions of the United States

Srikanta Sannigrahi et al. Environ Res. 2022 Jul.

Abstract

Forest fires impact on soil, water, and biota resources. The current forest fires in the West Coast of the United States (US) profoundly impacted the atmosphere and air quality across the ecosystems and have caused severe environmental and public health burdens. Forest fire led emissions could significantly exacerbate the air pollution level and, therefore, would play a critical role if the same occurs together with any epidemic and pandemic health crisis. Limited research is done so far to examine its impact in connection to the current pandemic. As of October 21, nearly 8.2 million acres of forest area were burned, with more than 25 casualties reported so far. In-situ air pollution data were utilized to examine the effects of the 2020 forest fire on atmosphere and coronavirus (COVID-19) casualties. The spatial-temporal concentrations of particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) and Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) were collected from August 1 to October 30 for 2020 (the fire year) and 2019 (the reference year). Both spatial (Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression) and non-spatial (Negative Binomial Regression) analyses were performed to assess the adverse effects of fire emission on human health. The in-situ data-led measurements showed that the maximum increases in PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 concentrations (μg/m3) were clustered in the West Coastal fire-prone states during August 1 - October 30, 2020. The average concentration (μg/m3) of particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) and NO2 was increased in all the fire states severely affected by forest fires. The average PM2.5 concentrations (μg/m3) over the period were recorded as 7.9, 6.3, 5.5, and 5.2 for California, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington in 2019, increasing up to 24.9, 13.4, 25.0, and 17.0 in 2020. Both spatial and non-spatial regression models exhibited a statistically significant association between fire emission and COVID-19 incidents. Such association has been demonstrated robust and stable by a total of 30 models developed for analyzing the spatial non-stationary and local association. More in-depth research is needed to better understand the complex relationship between forest fire emission and human health.

Keywords: Air pollution; COVID-19; Forest fire; Hazard; Nitrogen dioxide; Spatial models.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Major fire events occurred in the West Coast States of the USA, mainly in California, Oregon, Washington, and Colorado in 2020.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Spatial distribution of PM2.5 concentration in August, September, and October in 2019 and 2020.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Spatial distribution of PM10 concentration in August, September, and October in 2019 and 2020.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Spatial distribution of NO2 concentration in August, September, and October in 2019 and 2020.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Average concentration of different air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, NO2) in August, September, and October in 2019 and 2020.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Average concentration of (a) PM2.5, (b) PM10, (c) NO2 in different States in USA in 2019 and 2020; and concentration of (d) PM2.5, (e) PM10, and (f) NO2 in fire prone States in the USA in 2019 and 2020.
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Daily variation in PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 concentration during August 01 to October 30 period in 2019 and 2020.
Fig. 8
Fig. 8
Daily changes in air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, NO2) and COVID-19 new cases and deaths in the four fire States during August 1 to October 30 period.
Fig. 9
Fig. 9
Correlation matrix shows the association between monthly concentration values of PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 and monthly average COVID incidents.
Fig. 10
Fig. 10
Correlation matrix shows the association between the air pollution estimates and COVID-19 casualties duing the entire study period (August 1 to October 30).
Fig. 11
Fig. 11
Spatial coefficient of determination values (R2) exhibiting the spatial association between air pollution estimates and COVID incidents at local scale.
Fig. 12
Fig. 12
Spatial coefficient of determination values (R2) exhibiting the spatial association between air pollution estimates and COVID incidents at local scale. PM2.5Max, PM10Max, NO2Max refers to the maximum average estimates of PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 measured during the study period.
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