The Cantabrian capercaillie: A population on the edge

Abstract

The capercaillie Tetrao urogallus - the world's largest grouse- is a circumboreal forest species, which only two remaining populations in Spain: one in the Cantabrian mountains in the west and the other in the Pyrenees further east. Both have shown severe declines, especially in the Cantabrian population, which has recently been classified as "Critically Endangered". To develop management plans, information on demographic parameters is necessary to understand and forecast population dynamics. We used spatial capture-recapture (SCR) modeling and non-invasive DNA samples to estimate the current population size in the whole Cantabrian mountain range. In addition, for the assessment of population status, we analyzed the population trajectory over the last 42 years (1978-2019) at 196 leks on the Southern slope of the range, using an integrated population model with a Dail-Madsen model at its core, combined with a multistate capture-recapture model for survival and a Poisson regression for productivity. For 2019, we estimate the size of the entire population at 191 individuals (95% BCI 165-222) for an estimated 60 (48-78) females and 131 (109-157) males. Since the 1970s, our study estimates a shrinkage of the population range by 83%. The population at the studied leks in 2019 was at about 10% of the size estimated for 1978. Apparent annual survival was estimated at 0.707 (0.677-0.735), and per-capita recruitment at 0.233 (0.207-0.262), and insufficient to maintain a stable population. We suggest work to improve the recruitment (and survival) and manage these mountain forests for capercaillie conservation. Also, in the future, management should assess the genetic viability of this population.

Keywords: Capercaillie; Dail-Madsen model; Integrated population model (IPM); Population size; Recruitment; Spatial capture-recapture (SCR); Survival.