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. 2022 Feb 3;22(1):216.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-022-12626-x.

Perimeter confinements of basic health zones and COVID-19 incidence in Madrid, Spain

García-García David  1   2 , Herranz-Hernandez Rafael  3 , Rojas-Benedicto Ayelén  1   2 , León-Gómez Inmaculada  1   2 , Larrauri Amparo  1   2 , Peñuelas Marina  2 , Guerrero-Vadillo María  2 , Ramis Rebeca  1   2 , Gómez-Barroso Diana  4   5
Affiliations

Perimeter confinements of basic health zones and COVID-19 incidence in Madrid, Spain

García-García David et al. BMC Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: A unique policy of perimeter closures of Basic Health Zones (small administrative health units) was implemented in the Autonomous Community of Madrid from September 21st 2020 to May 23rd 2021 to face the COVID-19 pandemic.

Aim: To assess the impact of local perimeter confinements on the 14-days cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 during the second wave of the pandemic in Madrid, Spain.

Methods: We compare the errors in estimation of two families of mathematical models: ones that include the perimeter closures as explanatory covariables and ones that do not, in search of a significant improvement in estimation of one family over the other. We incorporate leave-one-out cross-validation, and at each step of this process we select the best model in AIC score from a family of 15 differently tuned ones.

Results: The two families of models provided very similar estimations, for a 1- to 3-weeks delay in observed cumulative incidence, and also when restricting the analysis to only those Basic Health Zones that were subject to at least one closure during the time under study. In all cases the correlation between the errors yielded by both families of models was higher than 0.98 (±10- 3 95% CI), and the average difference of estimated 14-days cumulative incidence was smaller than 1.49 (±0.33 95% CI).

Conclusion: Our analysis suggests that the perimeter closures by Basic Health Zone did not have a significant effect on the epidemic curve in Madrid.

Keywords: Covid-19; Madrid; Perimeter closures; Spain.

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Conflict of interest statement

No competing interest.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Diagrammatic description of the process followed for the statistical analysis. The type of effect assumed for each of the covariates in the models is shown in parenthesis
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Spatial distribution of the Basic Health Zones (BHZs) in Autonomous Community of Madrid (in blue), and municipalities (black outline). Different shades of blue are used only for improved legibility
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Total number of perimeter confined BHZs by date
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Real Decreto 463/2020, de 14 de marzo, por el que se declara el estado de alarma para la gestión de la situación de crisis sanitaria ocasionada por el COVID-19. https://www.boe.es/buscar/pdf/2020/BOE-A-2020-3692-consolidado.pdf.
    1. Orden SND/399/2020, de 9 de mayo, para la flexibilización de determinadas restricciones de ámbito nacional, establecidas tras la declaración del estado de alarma en aplicación de la fase 1 del Plan para la transición hacia una nueva normalidad. https://www.boe.es/eli/es/o/2020/05/09/snd399/dof/spa/pdf.
    1. Real Decreto-ley 21/2020, de 9 de junio, de medidas urgentes de prevención, contención y coordinación para hacer frente a la crisis sanitaria ocasionada por el COVID-19.
    1. BOE.es - BOE-A-2020-5142 Orden SND/422/2020, de 19 de mayo, por la que se regulan las condiciones para el uso obligatorio de mascarilla durante la situación de crisis sanitaria ocasionada por el COVID-19. https://www.boe.es/eli/es/o/2020/05/19/snd422.
    1. Real Decreto 555/2020, de 5 de junio, por el que se prorroga el estado de alarma declarado por el Real Decreto 463/2020, de 14 de marzo, por el que se declara el estado de alarma para la gestión de la situación de crisis sanitaria ocasionada por el COVID-19. https://www.boe.es/buscar/pdf/2020/BOE-A-2020-5767-consolidado.pdf.

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