Modelling COVID-19 Scenarios for the States and Federal Territories of Malaysia

Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes COVID-19 disease, which has become pandemic since December 2019. In the recent months, among five countries in the Southeast Asia, Malaysia has the highest per-capita daily new cases and daily new deaths. A mathematical modelling approach using a Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) technique was used to generate data-driven 30-days ahead forecasts for the number of daily cases in the states and federal territories in Malaysia at four consecutive time points between 27 July 2021 and 26 August 2021. Each forecast was produced using SSA prediction model of the current major trend at each time point. The objective is to understand the transition dynamics of COVID-19 in each state by analysing the direction of change of the major trends during the period of study. The states and federal territories in Malaysia were grouped in four categories based on the nature of the transition. Overall, it was found that the COVID-19 spread has progressed unevenly across states and federal territories. Major regions like Selangor, Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya and Negeri Sembilan were in Group 3 (fast decrease in infectivity) and Labuan was in Group 4 (possible eradication of infectivity). Other states e.g. Pulau Pinang, Sabah, Sarawak, Kelantan and Johor were categorised in Group 1 (very high infectivity levels) with Perak, Kedah, Pahang, Terengganu and Melaka were classified in Group 2 (high infectivity levels). It is also cautioned that SSA provides a promising avenue for forecasting the transition dynamics of COVID-19; however, the reliability of this technique depends on the availability of good quality data.

Keywords: COVID-19 forecast; data-driven approach; singular spectrum analysis; transition dynamics.

Figure 1

Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia (1 January 2021–5 September 2021). Source: (6)

Figure 2

Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people for Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and Philippines (1 January 2021–5 September 2021). Source: (6)

Figure 3

Hotspot mapping predicted by the SSA technique, which is used to forecast COVID-19 spread for the states and federal territories in Malaysia

Figure 4

30-days ahead forecasts for Perlis, Kedah, Pulau Pinang, Perak, Selangor, Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur, Federal Territory of Putrajaya and Negeri Sembilan. The value in the round bracket next to each forecast gives the percentage of total variance described by the trend from which the respective forecast is generated

Figure 5

30-days ahead forecasts for Melaka, Johor, Pahang, Terengganu, Kelantan, Sabah, Sarawak and Federal Territory of Labuan. The value in the round bracket next to each forecast gives the percentage of total variance described by the trend from which the respective forecast is generated