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. 2022 Mar;11(5):1310-1323.
doi: 10.1002/cam4.4551. Epub 2022 Feb 4.

Global burden of primary liver cancer by five etiologies and global prediction by 2035 based on global burden of disease study 2019

Yuan Liu #  1 , Jinxin Zheng #  2 , Jialing Hao #  1 , Rang Rang Wang  1 , Xueni Liu  1 , Peng Gu  1 , Hongwei Yu  1 , Yang Yu  1 , Chuanxing Wu  1 , Baochi Ou  3 , Zhihai Peng  1   4   5
Affiliations

Global burden of primary liver cancer by five etiologies and global prediction by 2035 based on global burden of disease study 2019

Yuan Liu et al. Cancer Med. 2022 Mar.

Abstract

Background: Using data from the global burden of disease (GBD) between 1990 and 2019 to report the leading etiological factors and hazards for liver cancer by HBV (LCHB), HCV (LCHC), alcoholic use (LCAL), NASH (LCNA), and other causes (LCOT).

Method: The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) in different districts, sex, and age are used to quantify the change of etiologies of liver cancer. Age-period-cohort models were performed to predict the primary liver cancer incidence and case numbers.

Results: Based on the GBD database of the whole world for the five etiologies of liver cancer in 2019, the percentage of incidence of LCAL, LCHB, LCHC, LCNA, and LCOT are 18.4%, 41%, 28.5%, 6.8%, and 5.3%, respectively. Fiver etiologies of liver cancer show gender differences, with LCHB and LCAL being more prevalent in men, and LCHC, LCNA being more prevalent in women. Besides, live cancer of males is because of alcohol using and smoking, while the reason of liver cancer of females is drug use, high BMI and high fasting plasma glucose. Interestingly, the incidence of LCHC in women over 85 years old, LCNA in women over 75 years old, and LCOT in women over 75 years old were all higher than that in men. According to the future prediction, the incidence rate of liver cancer itself, as well as the five causes of liver cancer, tends to decrease gradually after 2019, while the incidence rate of LCNA in males will continue to increase until 2025.

Conclusions: The incidence of liver cancer has been increasing and its major causes vary considerably at global, regional, or national levels, also vary by gender and age group.

Keywords: HBV; HCV; NASH; alcoholic use; liver cancer.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors of this manuscript have no conflict of interest to disclose.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Landscape of the study. This study demonstrated the etiologies of liver cancer by HBV (LCHB), HCV (LCHC), alcoholic use (LCAL), NASH (LCNA), and other causes (LCOT). We used gender and age to quantify changes in the etiology of liver cancer and forecast the incidence of liver cancer in 2035
Figure 2
Figure 2
Global liver cancer burden. (A)The number of cases of global liver cancer; (B) age‐standardized rate of global liver cancer; (C) EPAC of the age‐standardized rate of global liver cancer
Figure 3
Figure 3
Liver cancer caused by five different etiologies. (A) Percentages of liver cancer caused by five etiologies worldwide in 1990 and 2019; (B) percentages of liver cancer caused by five etiologies in males and females from 1990 to 2019; (C) percentages of liver cancer caused by five etiologies globally and across different SDI regions
Figure 4
Figure 4
Trends of ASR in SDI between males and females. (A) The trend of liver cancer's ASR in males and females globally and across different SDI regions; (B) global distribution of SDI (liver cancer) and age‐standardized incidence rate in different countries; (C) global distribution of SDI (liver cancer) and age‐standardized incidence rate from 1990 to 2019 for different regions
Figure 5
Figure 5
The correlation of age and incident cases of liver cancer by sex and SDI. (A) The global number of incident cases and incidence rate by age and sex of liver cancer; (B) distribution of the incident counts in different age groups from 1990 to 2019 globally and in different SDI regions; (C) distribution of the incident rates in different age groups from 1990 to 2019 globally and in different SDI regions
Figure 6
Figure 6
Prediction of the incidence rate (all ages) of primary liver cancer by sex in 2035. LICA: Liver cancer; LCAL: Liver cancer by alcoholic use; LCHB: Liver cancer by HBV; LCHC: Liver cancer by HCV; LCNA: Liver cancer by NASH; LCOT: Liver cancer by other causes
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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