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. 2022 Jan 30:9:20499361221074569.
doi: 10.1177/20499361221074569. eCollection 2022 Jan-Dec.

Predictors of adverse outcome in the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic: results from a UK centre

Christopher A Martin  1 , Daniel Pan  1 , George Hills  2 , Deborah Modha  3 , Prashanth Patel  4 , Laura J Gray  5 , David R Jenkins  3 , Linda Barton  6 , William Jones  7 , Nigel J Brunskill  4 , Pranab Haldar  1 , Kamlesh Khunti  8 , Manish Pareek  1
Affiliations

Predictors of adverse outcome in the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic: results from a UK centre

Christopher A Martin et al. Ther Adv Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Background/aims: Data concerning differences in demographics/disease severity between the first and second waves of COVID-19 are limited. We aimed to examine prognosis in patients presenting to hospital with COVID-19 amongst different ethnic groups between the first and second waves in the UK.

Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we included 1763 patients presenting to a regional hospital centre in Leicester (UK) and compared those in the first (n = 956) and second (n = 807) waves. Admission National Early Warning Scores, mechanical ventilation and mortality rate were lower in the second wave compared with the first.

Results: Thirty-day mortality risk in second wave patients was approximately half that of first wave patients [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.40-0.75]. In the second wave, Black patients were at higher risk of 30-day mortality than White patients (4.73, 1.56-14.3).

Conclusion: We found that disporportionately higher risks of death in patients from ethnic minority groups were not equivalent across consecutive waves of the pandemic. This suggests that risk factors for death in those from ethnic minority groups are malleable and potentially reversible. Our findings need urgent investigation in larger studies.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; ethnicity; mortality.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest statement: The authors declared the following potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship and/or publication of this article: KK is the Director of the University of Leicester Centre for Black Minority Ethnic Health, Trustee of the South Asian Health Foundation and Chair of the Ethnicity Subgroup of SAGE. MP reports grants and personal fees from Gilead Sciences and personal fees from QIAGEN, outside the submitted work.

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