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. 2022 Jun:209:112873.
doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.112873. Epub 2022 Feb 5.

A methodological proposal to evaluate the health hazard scenario from COVID-19 in Italy

Murgante Beniamino  1 , Balletto Ginevra  2 , Borruso Giuseppe  3 , Saganeiti Lucia  4 , Pilogallo Angela  5 , Scorza Francesco  6 , Castiglia Paolo  7 , Arghittu Antonella  8 , Dettori Marco  9
Affiliations

A methodological proposal to evaluate the health hazard scenario from COVID-19 in Italy

Murgante Beniamino et al. Environ Res. 2022 Jun.

Abstract

2019 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) had a big impact in Italy, mainly concentrated in the northern part of the Country. All this was mainly due to similarities of this area with Wuhan in Hubei Province, according to geographical, environmental and socio-economic points of view. The basic hypothesis of this research was that the presence of atmospheric pollutants can generate stress on health conditions of the population and determine pre-conditions for the development of diseases of the respiratory system and complications related to them. In most cases the attention on environmental aspects is mainly concentrated on pollution, neglecting issues such as land management which, in some way, can contribute to reducing the impact of pollution. The reduction of land take and the decrease in the loss of ecosystem services can represent an important aspect in improving environmental quality. In order to integrate policies for environmental change and human health, the main factors analyzed in this paper can be summarized in environmental, climatic and land management. The main aim of this paper was to produce three different hazard scenarios respectively related to environmental, climatic and land management-related factors. A Spatial Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method has been applied over thirteen informative layers grouped in aggregation classes of environmental, climatic and land management. The results of the health hazard maps show a disparity in the distribution of territorial responses to the pandemic in Italy. The environmental components play an extremely relevant role in the definition of the red zones of hazard, with a consequent urgent need to renew sustainable development strategies. The comparison of hazard maps related to different scenarios provides decision makers with tools to orient policy choices with a different degree of priority according to a place-based approach. In particular, the geospatial representation of risks could be a tool for legitimizing the measures chosen by decision-makers, proposing a renewed approach that highlights and takes account of the differences between the spatial contexts to be considered - Regions, Provinces, Municipalities - also in terms of climatic and environmental variables.

Keywords: COVID-19; Ecosystem services; Hazard map; Italy; Multicriteria analysis; Pandemics; SARS-CoV-2; Spatial diffusion.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Habitat quality decrease and habitat degradation increase (adimensional), 1990–2018.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Data-set of environmental, climatic and land.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Methodological framework.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Pairwise comparison matrices for each of the three scenarios.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
wt resulting from AHP.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Hazard maps according to scenarios I (A), II (B) and III (C).
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
SMR - data on 30 April 2020.
Fig. 8
Fig. 8
Comparison between the three scenarios in terms of areas.
Fig. 9
Fig. 9
Comparison between the three scenarios in terms of population over 65.
Fig. 10
Fig. 10
Comparison between the three scenarios in terms of number of provinces.
Fig. 11
Fig. 11
Radar graph.
Fig. 12
Fig. 12
Functional and Dysfunctional system.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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