Projecting the impact of Covid-19 variants and vaccination strategies in disease transmission using a multilayer network model in Costa Rica

Abstract

For countries starting to receive steady supplies of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, the course of Covid-19 for the following months will be determined by the emergence of new variants and successful roll-out of vaccination campaigns. To anticipate this scenario, we used a multilayer network model developed to forecast the transmission dynamics of Covid-19 in Costa Rica, and to estimate the impact of the introduction of the Delta variant in the country, under two plausible vaccination scenarios, one sustaining Costa Rica's July 2021 vaccination pace of 30,000 doses per day and with high acceptance from the population and another with declining vaccination pace to 13,000 doses per day and with lower acceptance. Results suggest that the introduction and gradual dominance of the Delta variant would increase Covid-19 hospitalizations and ICU admissions by [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], respectively, from August 2021 to December 2021, depending on vaccine administration and acceptance. In the presence of the Delta variant, new Covid-19 hospitalizations and ICU admissions are estimated to increase around [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], respectively, in the same period if the vaccination pace drops. Our results can help decision-makers better prepare for the Covid-19 pandemic in the months to come.

Figure 1

Scenarios without and with Delta Variant. Figures show the scenarios implemented for Costa Rica with 5 million inhabitants, considering two vaccination strategies with and without the presence of the Delta variant. Left panels correspond to the scenario without the introduction of Delta, and the right panels correspond to the results with the Delta variant. From top to bottom, cumulative Covid-19 confirmed cases, daily Covid-19 hospitalizations, and ICU Covid-19 occupancy. Projections are for the period from August 2 to December 31, 2021.