Predictors of Mortality and Cardiovascular Outcome at 6 Months after Hospitalization for COVID-19

Abstract

Clinical outcome data of patients discharged after Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are limited and no study has evaluated predictors of cardiovascular prognosis in this setting. Our aim was to assess short-term mortality and cardiovascular outcome after hospitalization for COVID-19. A prospective cohort of 296 consecutive patients discharged after COVID-19 from two Italian institutions during the first wave of the pandemic and followed up to 6 months was included. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. The co-primary endpoint was the incidence of the composite outcome of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE: cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, pulmonary embolism, acute heart failure, or hospitalization for cardiovascular causes). The mean follow-up duration was 6 ± 2 months. The incidence of all-cause death was 4.7%. At multivariate analysis, age was the only independent predictor of mortality (aHR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01-1.16). MACCE occurred in 7.2% of patients. After adjustment, female sex (aHR 2.6, 95% CI 1.05-6.52), in-hospital acute heart failure during index hospitalization (aHR 3.45, 95% CI 1.19-10), and prevalent atrial fibrillation (aHR 3.05, 95% CI 1.13-8.24) significantly predicted the incident risk of MACCE. These findings may help to identify patients for whom a closer and more accurate surveillance after discharge for COVID-19 should be considered.

Keywords: COVID-19; cardiovascular events; follow-up; mortality.

Figure 1

Kaplan–Meier survival curves at 6 months by tertiles of age.

Figure 2

Kaplan–Meier curves showing MACCE-free survival at 6 months by tertiles of age (A), sex (B), atrial fibrillation status (C), and occurrence of acute heart failure during index hospitalization for COVID-19 (D). COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019; MACCE, major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events.