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. 2022 Jan 27;19(3):1404.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph19031404.

Predicting Ovarian-Cancer Burden in Catalonia by 2030: An Age-Period-Cohort Modelling

Paula Peremiquel-Trillas  1   2   3 , Jon Frias-Gomez  1   2   3 , Laia Alemany  1   2   4 , Alberto Ameijide  5   6 , Mireia Vilardell  7 , Rafael Marcos-Gragera  4   8   9   10 , Sònia Paytubi  1   2 , Jordi Ponce  2   11 , José Manuel Martínez  2   11 , Marta Pineda  12 , Joan Brunet  2   12   13   14 , Xavier Matías-Guiu  2   13   15 , Marià Carulla  5   6 , Jaume Galceran  5   6 , Ángel Izquierdo  8   12   14   16 , Josep M Borràs  2   17 , Laura Costas  1   2   4 , Ramon Clèries  2   17   18
Affiliations

Predicting Ovarian-Cancer Burden in Catalonia by 2030: An Age-Period-Cohort Modelling

Paula Peremiquel-Trillas et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

Ovarian cancer is the most lethal gynaecological cancer in very-high-human-development-index regions. Ovarian cancer incidence and mortality rates are estimated to globally rise by 2035, although incidence and mortality rates depend on the region and prevalence of the associated risk factors. The aim of this study is to assess changes in incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer in Catalonia by 2030. Bayesian autoregressive age-period-cohort models were used to predict the burden of OC incidence and mortality rates for the 2015-2030 period. Incidence and mortality rates of ovarian cancer are expected to decline in Catalonia by 2030 in women ≥ 45 years of age. A decrease in ovarian-cancer risk was observed with increasing year of birth, with a rebound in women born in the 1980s. A decrease in mortality was observed for the period of diagnosis and period of death. Nevertheless, ovarian-cancer mortality remains higher among older women compared to other age groups. Our study summarizes the most plausible scenario for ovarian-cancer changes in terms of incidence and mortality in Catalonia by 2030, which may be of interest from a public health perspective for policy implementation.

Keywords: burden; incidence; mortality; ovarian cancer; projections; survival; time trends.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to publish the results.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
(a,b) Time trends of incidence/mortality for the entire cohort of women: risk of incidence/death by birth cohort; (c,d) period of diagnosis for ovarian cancer in Catalonia during 1997–2027. The dashed line indicates 95% prediction intervals. Note: These figures reflect changes in the overall trend of incidence and mortality for the entire cohort of women concerning the average of rates across birth cohorts or period of diagnosis/death. For instance, cohorts born before the 1960s presented a higher risk (relative risk, RR) of ovarian cancer incidence and mortality than cohorts born later. The time trend of ovarian cancer incidence and death remained stable according to the period of diagnosis.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Time trends and projections of ovarian cancer rates up to 2030. (a) Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (per 100,000 women-years, standardized to the European Population) of ovarian cancer among women diagnosed ≥ 45 years (thick line: incidence; thin line: mortality; dashed lines: predicted ASRs and their corresponding 95% prediction intervals); (b) Age-specific incidence and mortality rates of ovarian cancer in Catalonia in 2030. AAPC: Annual average percentage change (a) Thick line: incidence; thin line: mortality; dashed lines: predicted ASRs and their corresponding 95% prediction intervals. (b) solid line: rates of the reference year 2012; dashed and dotted lines: predicted rates and their corresponding 95% prediction intervals, respectively.
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