Predicting Infectious Diseases: A Bibliometric Review on Africa

Abstract

Africa has a long history of novel and re-emerging infectious disease outbreaks. This reality has attracted the attention of researchers interested in the general research theme of predicting infectious diseases. However, a knowledge mapping analysis of literature to reveal the research trends, gaps, and hotspots in predicting Africa's infectious diseases using bibliometric tools has not been conducted. A bibliometric analysis of 247 published papers on predicting infectious diseases in Africa, published in the Web of Science core collection databases, is presented in this study. The results indicate that the severe outbreaks of infectious diseases in Africa have increased scientific publications during the past decade. The results also reveal that African researchers are highly underrepresented in these publications and that the United States of America (USA) is the most productive and collaborative country. The relevant hotspots in this research field include malaria, models, classification, associations, COVID-19, and cost-effectiveness. Furthermore, weather-based prediction using meteorological factors is an emerging theme, and very few studies have used the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) technologies. Therefore, there is a need to explore 4IR predicting tools such as machine learning and consider integrated approaches that are pivotal to developing robust prediction systems for infectious diseases, especially in Africa. This review paper provides a useful resource for researchers, practitioners, and research funding agencies interested in the research theme-the prediction of infectious diseases in Africa-by capturing the current research hotspots and trends.

Keywords: Africa; bibliometric review; infectious diseases; prediction; research hotspots.

Figure 1

The intersection of the four literature review topic categories.

Figure 2

Process of identifying papers for inclusion.

Figure 3

Distribution of annual publications on predicting infectious disease outbreaks research from 2011 to 2020.

Figure 4

Countries in the top ten ranks in publications on predicting infectious disease outbreaks from 2011 to 2020.

Figure 5

Country collaboration network.

Figure 6

Institution collaboration network.

Figure 7

Authors’ co-citation network.

Figure 8

Keywords co-occurrence network.

Figure 9

Thematic map of emerging themes in the prediction of infectious diseases research in Africa.

Figure 10

References of co-citation in the prediction of infectious diseases research in Africa.