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. 2022 Feb 19;20(1):23.
doi: 10.1186/s12961-022-00822-5.

Future health spending forecast in leading emerging BRICS markets in 2030: health policy implications

Mihajlo Jakovljevic  1   2   3 , Demetrios Lamnisos  4 , Ronny Westerman  5 , Vijay Kumar Chattu  6   7   8 , Arcadio Cerda  9
Affiliations

Future health spending forecast in leading emerging BRICS markets in 2030: health policy implications

Mihajlo Jakovljevic et al. Health Res Policy Syst. .

Erratum in

Abstract

Background: The leading emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) are increasingly shaping the landscape of the global health sector demand and supply for medical goods and services. BRICS' share of global health spending and future projections will play a prominent role during the 2020s. The purpose of the current research was to examine the decades-long underlying historical trends in BRICS countries' health spending and explore these data as the grounds for reliable forecasting of their health expenditures up to 2030.

Methods: BRICS' health spending data spanning 1995-2017 were extracted from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Financing Global Health 2019 database. Total health expenditure, government, prepaid private and out-of-pocket spending per capita and gross domestic product (GDP) share of total health spending were forecasted for 2018-2030. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to obtain future projections based on time series analysis.

Results: Per capita health spending in 2030 is projected to be as follows: Brazil, $1767 (95% prediction interval [PI] 1615, 1977); Russia, $1933 (95% PI 1549, 2317); India, $468 (95% PI 400.4, 535); China, $1707 (95% PI 1079, 2334); South Africa, $1379 (95% PI 755, 2004). Health spending as a percentage of GDP in 2030 is projected as follows: Brazil, 8.4% (95% PI 7.5, 9.4); Russia, 5.2% (95% PI 4.5, 5.9); India, 3.5% (95% PI 2.9%, 4.1%); China, 5.9% (95% PI 4.9, 7.0); South Africa, 10.4% (95% PI 5.5, 15.3).

Conclusions: All BRICS countries show a long-term trend towards increasing their per capita spending in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). India and Russia are highly likely to maintain stable total health spending as a percentage of GDP until 2030. China, as a major driver of global economic growth, will be able to significantly expand its investment in the health sector across an array of indicators. Brazil is the only large nation whose health expenditure as a percentage of GDP is about to contract substantially during the third decade of the twenty-first century. The steepest curve of increased per capita spending until 2030 seems to be attributable to India, while Russia should achieve the highest values in absolute terms. Health policy implications of long-term trends in health spending indicate the need for health technology assessment dissemination among the BRICS ministries of health and national health insurance funds. Matters of cost-effective allocation of limited resources will remain a core challenge in 2030 as well.

Keywords: 2030; BRICS; Brazil; China; Forecast; Health expenditure; Health financing; Health policy; India; Projections; Russia; South Africa; Spending; Sustainable Development Goals; UN.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Total health spending per capita in inflation-adjusted 2019 PPP-adjusted US dollars and total health spending as a percentage of GDP for Brazil, China and India
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Total health spending per capita in inflation-adjusted 2019 PPP-adjusted US dollars and total health spending as a percentage of GDP for Russia and South Africa
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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