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. 2022 Mar:38:100546.
doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100546. Epub 2022 Feb 11.

Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics

Mirjam E Kretzschmar  1 , Ben Ashby  2 , Elizabeth Fearon  3 , Christopher E Overton  4 , Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths  5 , Lorenzo Pellis  6 , Matthew Quaife  7 , Ganna Rozhnova  8 , Francesca Scarabel  9 , Helena B Stage  10 , Ben Swallow  11 , Robin N Thompson  12 , Michael J Tildesley  12 , Daniel Villela  13
Affiliations

Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics

Mirjam E Kretzschmar et al. Epidemics. 2022 Mar.

Abstract

Mathematical modelling and statistical inference provide a framework to evaluate different non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions for the control of epidemics that has been widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, lessons learned from this and previous epidemics are used to highlight the challenges for future pandemic control. We consider the availability and use of data, as well as the need for correct parameterisation and calibration for different model frameworks. We discuss challenges that arise in describing and distinguishing between different interventions, within different modelling structures, and allowing both within and between host dynamics. We also highlight challenges in modelling the health economic and political aspects of interventions. Given the diversity of these challenges, a broad variety of interdisciplinary expertise is needed to address them, combining mathematical knowledge with biological and social insights, and including health economics and communication skills. Addressing these challenges for the future requires strong cross-disciplinary collaboration together with close communication between scientists and policy makers.

Keywords: Mathematical models; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Pandemics; Pharmaceutical interventions; Policy support.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Relationships between interventions and methodological aspects.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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