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. 2022 Feb 4;4(5):79-82.
doi: 10.46234/ccdcw2022.012.

Impact of Regions with COVID-19 Cases on COVID-Zero Regions by Population Mobility - Worldwide, 2021

Lianhao Wang  1 , Shiyi Wang  2 , Xiangyu Zhang  1 , Zhongwei Jia  1   3   4
Affiliations

Impact of Regions with COVID-19 Cases on COVID-Zero Regions by Population Mobility - Worldwide, 2021

Lianhao Wang et al. China CDC Wkly. .

Abstract

What is already known about this topic?: Reducing population mobility and increasing the vaccination rate for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 can decrease the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

What is added by this report?: In order to reduce the incidence of COVID-19 to the levels of influenza after restoring normal mobility, the efficacy against infection needs to be increased to 40% and the efficacy against symptomatic disease needs to be increased to 90%. The efficacy against infection has a more important impact compared to efficacy against symptomatic disease or death on the transmission of COVID-19 at the population level.

What are the implications for public health practice?: The population should continue maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and minimize international movement to prevent transmission of COVID-19. Furthermore, developing new vaccines or promoting booster vaccinations should be considered to increase efficacy.

Keywords: COVID-19; Epidemic dynamics model; Population mobility; Vaccine.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Diagrams of the COVID-19 epidemic model. (A) the diagram of transregional mobility of population, (B) epidemic dynamics model compartments.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Prediction of COVID-19 epidemic after restoring population mobility without NPIs. (A) The number of daily infections, (B) The number of cumulative infections with time..
Figure 3
Figure 3
The number of COVID-19 cases in response to different vaccine protection at (A) low rate of population mobility, (B) normal rate of population mobility.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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