Emergent constraints on future precipitation changes

Abstract

Future projections of global mean precipitation change (ΔP) based on Earth-system models have larger uncertainties than projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT)¹. Although many observational constraints on ΔT have been proposed, constraints on ΔP have not been well studied^2-5 and are often complicated by the large influence of aerosols on precipitation⁴. Here we show that the upper bound (95th percentile) of ΔP (2051-2100 minus 1851-1900, percentage of the 1980-2014 mean) is lowered from 6.2 per cent to 5.2-5.7 per cent (minimum-maximum range of sensitivity analyses) under a medium greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Our results come from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and phase 6 ensembles^6-8, in which ΔP for 2051-2100 is well correlated with the global mean temperature trends during recent decades after 1980 when global anthropogenic aerosol emissions were nearly constant. ΔP is also significantly correlated with the recent past trends in precipitation when we exclude the tropical land areas with few rain-gauge observations. On the basis of these significant correlations and observed trends, the variance of ΔP is reduced by 8-30 per cent. The observationally constrained ranges of ΔP should provide further reliable information for impact assessments.