A Scoping Review of Drug Epidemic Models

Abstract

The phenomenon of drug epidemics has been a global issue in the past decades, causing enormous damages to the physical and mental health of drug users and social well-being. Despite great efforts to curb drug epidemics at the governmental or social level, the total number of drug users has still been on the rise in recent years, along with illicit production and trafficking around the world. Inspired by dynamical epidemic models of infectious disease, a flourishment of promising results has been observed in the exploration of drug epidemic models. In this review, we aim to provide a scoping review of all existing drug epidemic modeling studies, and it has been shown that most studies focused on analyses of theoretical behaviors of the model systems, lacking emphasis on practical applications in real settings. We found that the drug epidemic models were characterized by a longer time scale, no incubation period, no significant prevention vaccines interfered, and population specificity. This review could assist policymakers and public health workers in gaining deeper insights into modeling tools, and help modelers improve their works, thus narrowing gaps between mathematical epidemiology and public health studies.

Keywords: drug epidemic model; mathematical epidemiology; nonlinear dynamic systems.

Figure 1

PRISMA diagram of study selection processes.

Figure 2

Mathematical expressions of all the drug epidemic models.