Machine learning for predicting chronic diseases: a systematic review

Abstract

Objectives: We aimed to review the literature regarding the use of machine learning to predict chronic diseases.

Study design: This was a systematic review.

Methods: The searches included five databases. We included studies that evaluated the prediction of chronic diseases using machine learning models and reported the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values. The Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis scale was used to assess the quality of studies.

Results: In total, 42 studies were selected. The best reported area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value was 1, whereas the worst was 0.74. K-nearest neighbors, Naive Bayes, deep neural networks, and random forest were the machine learning models most frequently used for achieving the best performance.

Conclusion: We found that machine learning can predict the occurrence of individual chronic diseases, progression, and their determinants and in many contexts. The findings are original and relevant to improve clinical decisions and the organization of health care facilities.

Keywords: Chronic disease; Machine learning; Prediction.