A Monte Carlo based approach to the resource assessment of Jamaica's geothermal energy potential

Abstract

The Eastern Caribbean chain of islands is commonly known to exhibit high-enthalpy systems for geothermal energy exploitation. The northernmost Caribbean Community member state of Jamaica possesses physical manifestations of 12 hot springs across the island. Previous investigations indicate that of the potential 12 hot springs, Bath, Windsor and Milk River springs have cogent geothermometry of their thermal fluids with estimated temperature ranges of (80-102°C), (128-156°C), and (158-206°C), respectively. The paper provides numerical findings for each geothermal system of interest and performs Monte Carlo simulations to optimize calculated findings. The determined quantitative findings are considered under the context of environmental savings and policy regime conditions for driving geothermal energy development. The three areas of interest are situated within the Rio Minho Basin, the Dry Harbour Mountains and the Blue Mountain South Basin. Through the consideration of a 25-year lifetime for production, a collective total of 94.81 MWe of geothermal power reserves can be absorbed into the national energy mix, displacing an estimated 0.38 million barrels of oil imports, resulting in approximately 0.44 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions being avoided per year. This article is part of the theme issue 'Developing resilient energy systems'.

Keywords: Jamaica; Monte Carlo simulations; geothermal energy.