Summer temperature and all-cause mortality from 2006 to 2015 for Hyderabad, India

Abstract

Background: Studies have documented a significant association between temperature and all-cause mortality for various cities but such data are unavailable for Hyderabad City.

Objective: The objective of this work was to assess the association between the extreme heat and all-cause mortality for summer months (March to June) from 2006 to 2015 for Hyderabad city population.

Methods: We obtained the data on temperature and all-cause mortality for at least ten years for summer months. Descriptive and Bivariate analysis were conducted. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to study the relationship between heat and all-cause mortality for lag time effect.

Results: A total of 122,117 deaths for 1,220 summer days (2006 to 2015) were analyzed with mean daily all-cause mortality was 100.1±21.5. There is an increase of 16% and 17% per day mean all-cause mortality at the maximum temperature of ≥40°C and for extreme danger days (Heat Index >54°C) respectively. The mean daily all-cause mortality shows a significant association with maximum temperature (P < 0.001) and Heat Index from caution to extreme danger risk days (P < 0.0183). The lag effect of extreme heat on all-cause mortality for the study period (2006 to 2015) was at peak on same day of the maximum temperature (r = 0.273 at p<0.01).

Conclusion: The study concludes that the impact of ambient heat in the rise of all-cause mortality is clearly evident (16% mean deaths/day). There was no lag effect from the effect of extreme heat on all-cause mortality as the peak period was the same as the maximum temperature. Hence heat action plans are needed. However, extreme heat-related mortality merits further analysis.

Keywords: Heat wave; India; all-cause mortality; heat index; humidity; urban.