A general pattern of trade-offs between ecosystem resistance and resilience to tropical cyclones

Christopher J Patrick¹, John S Kominoski², William H McDowell^{3

4}, Benjamin Branoff⁵, David Lagomasino⁶, Miguel Leon³, Enie Hensel¹, Marc J S Hensel¹, Bradley A Strickland¹, T Mitchell Aide⁵, Anna Armitage⁷, Marconi Campos-Cerqueira⁸, Victoria M Congdon^{9

10}, Todd A Crowl², Donna J Devlin¹¹, Sarah Douglas⁹, Brad E Erisman⁹, Rusty A Feagin¹², Simon J Geist¹¹, Nathan S Hall¹³, Amber K Hardison¹³, Michael R Heithaus², J Aaron Hogan², J Derek Hogan¹¹, Sean Kinard¹, Jeremy J Kiszka², Teng-Chiu Lin¹⁴, Kaijun Lu⁹, Christopher J Madden¹⁵, Paul A Montagna¹⁶, Christine S O'Connell¹⁷, C Edward Proffitt¹¹, Brandi Kiel Reese¹⁸, Joseph W Reustle¹⁹, Kelly L Robinson²⁰, Scott A Rush²¹, Rolando O Santos², Astrid Schnetzer²², Delbert L Smee¹⁸, Rachel S Smith²³, Gregory Starr²⁴, Beth A Stauffer²⁰, Lily M Walker¹⁶, Carolyn A Weaver²⁵, Michael S Wetz¹⁶, Elizabeth R Whitman², Sara S Wilson², Jianhong Xue⁹, Xiaoming Zou²⁶

Affiliations

¹ Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Gloucester Point, VA 23062, USA.
² Institute of Environment, Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, USA.
³ Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA.
⁴ Institute of Environment, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, USA.
⁵ Department of Biology, University of Puerto Rico-Río Piedras, San Juan, 00925, Puerto Rico.
⁶ Department of Coastal Studies, East Carolina University, Wanchese, NC 27981, USA.
⁷ Department of Marine Biology, Texas A&M University at Galveston, Galveston, TX 77554, USA.
⁸ Rainforest Connection, San Francisco, CA 94102, USA.
⁹ University of Texas at Austin Marine Science Institute, Port Aransas, TX 78373, USA.
¹⁰ Florida Fish Wildlife Conservation Commission, Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, 100 Eighth Avenue, Southeast, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA.
¹¹ Department of Life Sciences, Texas A&M University Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412, USA.
¹² Department of Ecology and Conservation Biology, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA.
¹³ Department of Physical Sciences, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Gloucester Point, VA 23062, USA.
¹⁴ Department of Life Science, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei 11677, Taiwan.
¹⁵ Everglades-Florida Bay Ecosystem Lab, South Florida Water Management District, West Palm Beach, FL 33416, USA.
¹⁶ Harte Research Institute, Texas A&M University, Corpus Christi, TX 78412, USA.
¹⁷ Department of Environmental Studies, Macalester College, St. Paul, MN 55105, USA.
¹⁸ Marine Sciences, Dauphin Island Sea Lab, Dauphin Island, AL 36528, USA.
¹⁹ Institute of Marine Sciences, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Morehead City, NC 28557, USA.
²⁰ Department of Biology, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, LA 70503, USA.
²¹ Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Aquaculture, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS 39762, USA.
²² Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA.
²³ Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903, USA.
²⁴ Department of Biology, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA.
²⁵ Department of Biology, Millersville University, Millersville, PA 17551, USA.
²⁶ Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Puerto Rico, San Juan, PR 00936-8377, USA.

PMID: 35235355
PMCID: PMC8890713
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abl9155

A general pattern of trade-offs between ecosystem resistance and resilience to tropical cyclones

Christopher J Patrick et al. Sci Adv. 2022.

. 2022 Mar 4;8(9):eabl9155.

doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abl9155. Epub 2022 Mar 2.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Gloucester Point, VA 23062, USA.
² Institute of Environment, Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, USA.
³ Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA.
⁴ Institute of Environment, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, USA.
⁵ Department of Biology, University of Puerto Rico-Río Piedras, San Juan, 00925, Puerto Rico.
⁶ Department of Coastal Studies, East Carolina University, Wanchese, NC 27981, USA.
⁷ Department of Marine Biology, Texas A&M University at Galveston, Galveston, TX 77554, USA.
⁸ Rainforest Connection, San Francisco, CA 94102, USA.
⁹ University of Texas at Austin Marine Science Institute, Port Aransas, TX 78373, USA.
¹⁰ Florida Fish Wildlife Conservation Commission, Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, 100 Eighth Avenue, Southeast, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA.
¹¹ Department of Life Sciences, Texas A&M University Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412, USA.
¹² Department of Ecology and Conservation Biology, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA.
¹³ Department of Physical Sciences, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Gloucester Point, VA 23062, USA.
¹⁴ Department of Life Science, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei 11677, Taiwan.
¹⁵ Everglades-Florida Bay Ecosystem Lab, South Florida Water Management District, West Palm Beach, FL 33416, USA.
¹⁶ Harte Research Institute, Texas A&M University, Corpus Christi, TX 78412, USA.
¹⁷ Department of Environmental Studies, Macalester College, St. Paul, MN 55105, USA.
¹⁸ Marine Sciences, Dauphin Island Sea Lab, Dauphin Island, AL 36528, USA.
¹⁹ Institute of Marine Sciences, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Morehead City, NC 28557, USA.
²⁰ Department of Biology, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, LA 70503, USA.
²¹ Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Aquaculture, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS 39762, USA.
²² Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA.
²³ Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903, USA.
²⁴ Department of Biology, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA.
²⁵ Department of Biology, Millersville University, Millersville, PA 17551, USA.
²⁶ Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Puerto Rico, San Juan, PR 00936-8377, USA.

PMID: 35235355
PMCID: PMC8890713
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abl9155

Abstract

Tropical cyclones drive coastal ecosystem dynamics, and their frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution are predicted to shift with climate change. Patterns of resistance and resilience were synthesized for 4138 ecosystem time series from n = 26 storms occurring between 1985 and 2018 in the Northern Hemisphere to predict how coastal ecosystems will respond to future disturbance regimes. Data were grouped by ecosystems (fresh water, salt water, terrestrial, and wetland) and response categories (biogeochemistry, hydrography, mobile biota, sedentary fauna, and vascular plants). We observed a repeated pattern of trade-offs between resistance and resilience across analyses. These patterns are likely the outcomes of evolutionary adaptation, they conform to disturbance theories, and they indicate that consistent rules may govern ecosystem susceptibility to tropical cyclones.

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Figures

**Fig. 1.. Map of sites with storm tracks and ecosystem types studied.**
Middle panel is all site (dots) and storm track (lines) except data from Taiwan. Bordering center panels are cumulative rainfall values (bottom, right) and max wind speed (left, top) by longitude and latitude.

**Fig. 2.. Relationships between resistance to wind or rain and resilience among ecosystem and variable types.**
Ecosystem types, ecosystem processes, and flora and fauna all demonstrate negative covariation between resilience and (A) resistance to wind speed and (B) resistance to rainfall. Metrics are on a natural log scale and should be considered unitless for simple interpretation and viewed in relative terms from low to high. Each graph displays the stability summary metrics calculated from each time series labeled by ecosystem (color) and variable category (shape). Best fit lines shown include the relationships for each group-variable category combination in the varying slope and intercept model with line color indicating ecosystem type.

**Fig. 3.. Comparison of resistance and resilience among variable categories within ecosystem types.**
Columns correspond to ecosystem type, rows correspond to response metric, and colors denote variable category. Violin plots show the distribution of data within each group, while inset box plots show the median, quartiles, and outliers (points). Bars over each plot indicate which variables are not significantly different from one another within ecosystems. Alphanumeric labels under each violin plot indicate which variable categories were significantly different among ecosystems (columns). Letter denotes variable category (e.g., b = biogeochemistry, h = hydrography, m = mobile fauna, s = sedentary fauna, v = vascular plants). Number denotes rank, with different numbers across plots (e.g., b1 versus b2) indicating a significant difference. Red text indicates that for the response variable (row) and the indicated variable category (letter), we observed significant differences among ecosystem types (table S4).

**Fig. 4.. Relationship between storm metrics (total rainfall, max rainfall, and max wind speed) and resistance among ecosystems within each variable category.**
Points display the conditional random effect (x axis) of each storm metric (shape) on each variable category (row) in each ecosystem (color) from the respective mixed effects models for each storm metric. Error bars are the conditional standard deviations of the random effect.

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References

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A general pattern of trade-offs between ecosystem resistance and resilience to tropical cyclones

Affiliations

A general pattern of trade-offs between ecosystem resistance and resilience to tropical cyclones

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

Figures

References

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Full Text Sources