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Editorial
. 2022 Apr;41(2):101048.
doi: 10.1016/j.accpm.2022.101048. Epub 2022 Feb 28.

Epidemic models: why and how to use them

Mircea T Sofonea  1 , Simon Cauchemez  2 , Pierre-Yves Boëlle  3
Affiliations
Editorial

Epidemic models: why and how to use them

Mircea T Sofonea et al. Anaesth Crit Care Pain Med. 2022 Apr.
No abstract available

Keywords: COVID-19; Infectious disease modelling; SARS-CoV-2; mathematical epidemiology; non-pharmaceutical interventions; public health.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Models as necessary steps between intuition and insight. Describing a new phenomenon would ideally turn empirical observations and intuition directly into firm knowledge. In the case of an epidemic, such a path (a) is difficult to follow because of numerous ethical, spatio-temporal, logistic limitations or concurrent processes. Modelling provides a principled path to extracting knowledge from observational data and hypotheses (step b) allowing quantitative manipulation in a formalised space. Longitudinal comparisons (model performance in the past) and transversal comparisons (here/there situations) with field data as well as systematic model explorations (sensitivity analyses) allow us to finally derive robust knowledge (step c).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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