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. 2022 Jul;29(34):51507-51520.
doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-18564-w. Epub 2022 Mar 4.

Geographically weighted regression model for physical, social, and economic factors affecting the COVID-19 pandemic spreading

Ihsan Abbas Jasim  1 , Moheb Kamil Fileeh  2 , Mustafa A Ebrahhem  2 , Laheab A Al-Maliki  3 , Sohaib K Al-Mamoori  4 , Nadhir Al-Ansari  5
Affiliations

Geographically weighted regression model for physical, social, and economic factors affecting the COVID-19 pandemic spreading

Ihsan Abbas Jasim et al. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Jul.

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the spatial distribution of the epidemic spread and the role of the physical, social, and economic characteristics in this spreading. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was built within a GIS environment using infection data monitored by the Iraqi Ministry of Health records for 10 months from March to December 2020. The factors adopted in this model are the size of urban interaction areas and human gatherings, movement level and accessibility, and the volume of public services and facilities that attract people. The results show that it would be possible to deal with each administrative unit in proportion to its circumstances in light of the factors that appear in it. So, there will not be a single treatment for all areas with different urban characteristics, which sometimes helps not to stop social and economic life due to the imposition of a comprehensive ban on movement and activities. Therefore, there will be other supportive policies other than the ban, depending on the urban indicators for each region, such as reducing external movement from it or relying on preventing public activities only.

Keywords: COVID-19; Geographically weighted regression; Level of movement and accessibility; Level of urbanization; Pandemic; Spatial relations.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig.1
Fig.1
The study area location map
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Administrative units in Wasit Governorate, Iraq
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Spatial distribution of coronavirus disease in Wasit Governorate for 10 months
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
The total COVID-19 during March 2020 to December 2020
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Population distribution in the Wasit Governorate
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
The population percentage in each district of the study area with the infection’s percentage
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
The size of the roads network in Wasit Governorate indicated by access node
Fig. 8
Fig. 8
Hierarchy of services level in Wasit Governorate
Fig. 9
Fig. 9
The urban ration in the district of Wasit Governorate
Fig. 10
Fig. 10
The local R2 value for Wasit Governorate
Fig. 11
Fig. 11
Distribution standard residuals to GWR model for the distribution of COVID-19 in Wasit Governorate
Fig. 12
Fig. 12
The value of GWR intercept in the districts of Wasit Governorate
Fig. 13
Fig. 13
The value of GWR data reliability in Wasit Governorate
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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