Broadening risk factor or disease definition as a driver for overdiagnosis: A narrative review

Abstract

Medical overuse-defined as the provision of health services for which potential harms exceed potential benefits-constitutes a paradigm of low-value care and is seen as a threat to the quality of care. Value in healthcare implies a precise definition of disease. However, defining a disease may not be straightforward since clinical data do not show discrete boundaries, calling for some clinical judgment. And, if in time a redefinition of disease is needed, it is important to recognize that it can induce overdiagnosis, the identification of medical conditions that would, otherwise, never cause any significant symptoms or lead to clinical harm. A classic example is the impact of recommendations from professional societies in the late 1990s, lowering the threshold for abnormal total cholesterol from 240 mg/dl to 200 mg/dl. Due to these changes in risk factor definition, literally overnight there were 42 million new cases eligible for treatment in the United States. The same happened with hypertension-using either the 2019 NICE guidelines or the 2018 ESC/ECC guidelines criteria for arterial hypertension, the proportion of people overdiagnosed with hypertension was calculated to be between 14% and 33%. In this review, we will start by discussing resource overuse. We then present the basis for disease definition and its conceptual problems. Finally, we will discuss the impact of changing risk factor/disease definitions in the prevalence of disease and its consequences in overdiagnosis and overtreatment (a problem particularly relevant when definitions are widened to include earlier or milder disease).

Keywords: changing risk factor/disease definitions; disease definition; low-value care; overdiagnosis; overtreatment; resource overuse.

Fig. 1

Thyroid‐cancer incidence and related mortality in South Korea, 1993–2011 [12] (in process of obtaining a license for republication permissions, through the Copyright Clearance Center [CCC]).

Fig. 2

Baseline risk and efficacy of treatment [32] (in process of obtaining a license for republication permissions, through the Copyright Clearance Center [CCC]).

Fig. 3

Lead time affects survival time after screening.