Do the Benefits of School Closure Outweigh Its Costs?

Abstract

School closure has been a common response to COVID-19. Yet, its implementation has hardly ever been based on rigorous analysis of its costs and benefits. We aim to first illustrate the unintended consequences and side effects of school closure, and then discuss the policy and research implications. This commentary frames evidence from the most recent papers on the topic from a public-health epidemiology and disaster risk reduction perspective. In particular, we argue that the benefits of school closure in terms of reduced infection rates should be better compared with its costs in terms of both short- and long-term damage on the physical, mental, and social well-being of children and society at large.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; benefit-risk tradeoff; confirmation bias; precautionary principle; school closure.

Figure 1

Transmission-dynamic scenario for (A) influenza (flu)-like outbreaks as described by Cauchemez [11] and (B) COVID-19 outbreaks.

Figure 2

(A) School closure and the right to education. Deprived opportunities for learning are only one of the negative effects of school closure on children. (B) Side effects of school closure for children and society in the short- and long-term.

Figure 3

Unintended consequences of school closure. The balancing loop (B) schematizes the intended benefit of school closure to reduce the infection rates and thus COVID-19 cases and death. The three reinforcing loops (R) schematize examples of the unintended consequences (elderly exposure, reduction of healthcare staff, and I ncreasing inequalities) that can offset the intended benefit and paradoxically increase COVID-19 mortality and deaths. System dynamics notation is used to indicated positive (+) and negative (-) feedbacks. Dashed lines are used for long-term effects (e.g., increasing inequality).